Some academics have speculated on nations that are potential superpowers in the 21st century, mentioning several candidates. Whether the People's Republic of China,[1] India,[2] Russia,[3]. or the European Union,[4] will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate. The most common belief held is that only the United States of America currently fulfills the criteria to be considered a superpower; although it is a matter of debate right now on Russia as superpower[5][6] [7][8] Brazil,[9] is considered by some to be a potential great power.[10]
The record of such predictions has not been accurate. For example, in the 1980s some political and economic analysts erroneously predicted that Japan would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, huge GDP, and high economic growth at that time.[11]
The European Union has been called an emerging superpower by academics.[12][13][14][15] T.R. Reid,[16] Andrew Reding[17] and Mark Leonard,[18][19] believe that the power of the European Union will rival that of the United States in the 21st century. Leonard cites several factors the EU's large population, large economy, low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU members states' high quality of life (when measured in terms such as hours worked per week).[20] On the other hand Laurent Cohen-Tanugi[21] states that the EU as a whole has consistently suffered from a growth deficit vis-a-vis the US, high unemployment, and public deficits even while most member states of the EU lagged substantially behind the US in R&D investment, technological innovation, and, since 1995, productivity gains. Additionally, It is argued by commentators that full political integration is not required for the European Union to wield international influence that its apparent weaknesses constitute its real strengths (as of its low profile diplomacy and the opsetion of the rule of law[22]) and that the EU represents a new and potentially more successful type of international actor than traditional ones [5]; however, it is uncertain if the effectiveness of such an influence would be equal to that of a politically integrated superpower. (e.g. United States)
