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College Football Wagering Probabilities - Fight Hunger Bowl - BC versus Nevada by Lynn Smith





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College Football Wagering Probabilities - Fight Hunger Bowl - BC versus Nevada by
Article Posted: 01/04/2011
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College Football Wagering Probabilities - Fight Hunger Bowl - BC versus Nevada


 
Sports
The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl on Sunday, January 9th is a matchup between Nevada's racing attack and the Boston College run defense.

Nevada is a big favorite in ncaa nfl odds but the matchup may actually favor Boston College. Whereas the Boston press would have you believe BC got selected for the lowest of the decreased of ACC bowls, it's a pretty good matchup thinking about BC will face a team with the second-highest week 15 BCS ranking of any ACC bowl challenger. The quality of the challenger is reflected in the beginning point spread: the Eagles open as a 9 1/2 point long shot. Really? That much. Whereas it's true I'm an unabashed homer, that looks a big high, no?

Nevada -9, total 55 at the internet sportsbook - This line looks really high thinking about Boston College has the top run defense in the nation. The one point that Nevada does really well is run the ball but they are going to be dealing with a BC defense that permitted just 72.7 rushing yards per match this year. Nevada is third in total in total offense and third in rushing offense. They're led by Colin Kaepernick who is a dual threat but is primarily noted for his racing. The Wolfpack also have Vai Taua who scored 22 TDs this year. Nevada will be racing into a defense led by linebackers Mark Herzlich and Luke Kuechly. The 2 led a BC defense that was stout all year. Kuechly led the country with 171 tackles this year. BC also likes to run the ball with running backs Montel Harris and freshman Andre Williams. Nevada's defense was nothing amazing this year so Boston College ought to manage to move the ball on the ground and score points in this game despite the fact that they just scored more than 26 points once this year.

Match Facts - BC will be playing at AT&T Park in a bowl match for the second consecutive year. They lost last year 24-13 to USC in the Emerald Bowl. Nevada has lost their last four bowl games including 45-10 to SMU last year. Looking at the trends we find that the Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in total. The Eagles are 0-4 against the ncaa nfl gambling odds in their last 4 bowl games. The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in total. They're 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Looking at the total, the Eagles are a team that goes under. The Under is 5-0 in ncaa nfl odds in the Eagles last 5 games in total. The Under is 12-1 in the Eagles previous thirteen non-conference games. The Under is 4-1 in the Eagles last 5 Bowl games. The Boston College defense ought to keep this a decreased scoring match which means it goes under.

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