LONDON -- May 9, 2012 : Engine downsizing, which has been a major trend in Europeandiesel engines over the past decade, is poised to have a majorimpact on gasoline engines, which will witness the trend thatdiesel engines did in terms of engine downsizing and turbocharging10 years ago. This trend will also have a positive impact on thedemand for technologies supporting downsizing such as turbochargersand variable valvetrain. New analysis from Frost & Sullivan ( Frost Automotive ), 2011 Original Equipment Manufacturers Strategies for PassengerVehicle Engine Downsizing in Western Europe , finds that suppliers with complete powertrain development and benchmarkingcapabilities will gain significance. "Due to comparatively lower CO2 emissions, diesel engines will notface a challenge in complying with CO2 limits; hence, thelimitations in downsizing diesel engines will not be an issue,"notes Frost & Sullivan Senior Research Analyst Bharath Kumar Srinivasan. |
"Reducing the level of downsizing will also help control NOxemissions from these engines, which are being tightened for Euro 6 (to be enforced in 2014)." The number of cylinders in gasoline engines is likely to decreaseonly for engines below 1.2 litres. About 35-38 percent of gasolineengines are likely to be turbocharged by 2018. This high level ofturbocharging by European OEMs is likely to help in the marketgrowth of boosting technologies. Legal regulations and end-consumer environmental awareness willmotivate the sales of vehicles with small engines. For example, thecar scrappage schemes in 2009 reduced the average displacement ofengines in Western Europe.
Such initiatives will help boost engine downsizing. The addition of supporting technologies such as turbochargers andvariable valvetrain technologies are expected to drive costs andthis is likely to impact take-up rates in cost-sensitive segments. Downsizing engines results in lower torque output from the engineand, hence, lower transient response. Variable geometryturbocharging (VGT) is a good solution for better torque output,however, introducing VGT at a low cost for gasoline engines will bea challenge. "In diesel engines, aggressive downsizing results in higherspecific load and, therefore, increased NOx emissions," explainsSrinivasan.
"This, in turn, will have an effect cost as NOxafter-treatment technologies such as SCR are expensive." OEMs are likely to experience higher sales of low CO2 emittingvehicles and thus pass on the tax benefits to the end-consumer.This offers excellent scope for selling low emission models such asFord Focus, Volkswagen Polo, Volkswagen Golf and Opel/VauxhallCorsa. "With improved emissions and performance, without drop in fueleconomy, being the key drivers, engine downsizing is all set tohave a major impact towards achieving emissions of 120 g/km CO2in two-thirds of new car sales by 2016," concludes Srinivasan. 2011 Original Equipment Manufacturers Strategies for PassengerVehicle Engine Downsizing in Western Europe is part of the Automotive & Transportation Growth Partnership Service programme, which also includes researchin the following markets: 2010 Europe Consumer Attitudes andPerceptions toward Sustainability, Environment, and AlternativePowertrains - Key Findings on Transmission Technologies andComparative Analysis of European OEMs Powertrain Strategies for Euro 6 Compliance. All research included in subscriptions providedetailed market opportunities and industry trends that have beenevaluated following extensive interviews with market participants.
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