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Bernanke likely to be pressed on health of economy... - China Laser Tattoo Removal Machines by grehh hernjer





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Bernanke likely to be pressed on health of economy... - China Laser Tattoo Removal Machines by
Article Posted: 09/30/2013
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Bernanke likely to be pressed on health of economy... - China Laser Tattoo Removal Machines


 
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WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will beready for the question. And lawmakers will be eager for an answer: What's going on with the economy? It's a question that's raising fears and dividing economists insideand outside the Fed. How much guidance Bernanke will provide whenhe visits Capitol Hill on Thursday is unclear. In its most recent economic forecasts in late April, the Fedupgraded its outlook for 2012. It predicted more growth and lowerunemployment than it had three months earlier.

Since then, jobgrowth has slumped. Stock prices have dropped. Europe's debt crisishas deepened. Now, members of the Joint Economic Committee will want to knowwhether Bernanke and the Fed have turned gloomier – and, ifso, whether they're likely to act further to aid the economy.

The Fed has made two rounds of bond purchases to try to lowerlong-term interest rates and encourage borrowing and spending.After those purchases ended, the Fed began a program dubbedOperation Twist: It sells shorter-term securities and buyslonger-term bonds to keep their rates down. Operation Twist is setto end at the end of this month. Bernanke has said that more bond purchases, or other steps by theFed, are still an option if the economy weakens. But many analystsdon't expect further moves at the Fed's next policy meeting June19-20. They note that long-term rates have already touched recordlows.

And few think further Fed action would lower them much more. Many economists think Bernanke will discuss the possibility offurther Fed efforts at a news conference after the June meeting butwon't announce anything. Some say he would help shore up confidenceby reiterating that more action remains an option should theeconomy weaken. "Just the fact that Bernanke is talking about more Fed bond buyingwould be important," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor atCalifornia State University. "What we need is a psychologicallift." A bleaker view of the economy has taken hold in recent weeks,especially as hiring has weakened.

U.S. employers added just 69,000jobs in May, the fewest in a year. Since averaging a robust 252,000a month from December through February, job growth has slowed to alackluster 96,000 a month. And the U.S. economy grew at a tepid annual rate of 1.9 percent inthe first three months of 2012.

Fears are also growing that a collapse of Europe's euro currencyunion could trigger a panic and perhaps cause a global recession. On Thursday, lawmakers will likely want to know how concernedBernanke and other Fed officials are. Do they think the U.S. hiring slump is partly a temporary setbackbecause a warm winter caused some hiring to occur earlier in theyear than usual? Does the Fed still think the U.S.

economy will grow between 2.4percent and 2.9 percent this year? And that unemployment, now at8.2 percent, will be between 7.8 percent and 8 percent at year'send? Is further Fed action likelier than it was at the Fed's previousmeeting in April? How grave a threat is Europe's crisis? The Fed's policy committee has been split between those who favordoing everything possible to strengthen the economy and reduceunemployment and those more concerned about inflation risks. Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, saidin a speech Tuesday that he would oppose further Fed efforts tobolster the economy. "Were we to go down the path to further accommodation at thisjuncture, we would not simply be pushing on a string but would beviewed as an accomplice to the mischief that has become synonymouswith Washington," Fisher said. Fisher isn't a voting member of the policy-making Federal OpenMarket Committee this year. But all Fed officials on the 19-memberpanel get to participate in the discussions.

Dennis Lockhart, who is a committee voting member, said in a speechWednesday that should the economy deteriorate, "further monetaryactions to support the recovery will certainly need to beconsidered." Lockhart did not specify what measures he thinks should beconsidered. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker has cast alone dissenting vote at each of the Fed's three meetings this yearbecause he opposes its plan to keep short-term rates at record lowsuntil at least late 2014. Vincent Reinhart, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley andformerly the Fed's top staffer on interest-rate policy, is among aminority who think the Fed will take action this month.

He alsothinks the Fed will scale back its economic forecasts. "Slower employment growth, worsening strains in European markets... makes it likely that the Fed will mark down its already tepidforecast," Reinhart said in a note to clients. With long-term U.S. interest rates at record lows, further Fed bondpurchases might have little effect.

But some economists think a Fedmove would help keep rates down should investors decide to stoppouring so much money into U.S. Treasurys. Many investors havesought the safety of Treasurys as Europe's crisis has flared. Thatmoney has helped drive down long-term U.S.

rates. Some economists say they think most Fed policymakers recognize thatan economy facing such threats as slowing job growth and a Europeandebt crisis needs rates to stay as low as possible. "When you have an economy that is recovering as slowly as this one,it is really vulnerable to downside shocks," said David Jones,chief economist at DMJ Advisors. "I think more monetary stimulus isnot only on the table but likely to be used.".

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