2007 year-end, polysilicon prices have reached 400 U.S. dollars / kilograms of high price to mid-2008, the market spot price was as high as 450 U.S. dollars / kg. Corresponding with this is that the input of 1,500 tons / year production line or even smaller tons production line, even if still not enough because the scale of the economy, the overall cost will not be more than 80 U.S. dollars / kg. As long as there are goods, to be looting immediately. |
In 2009, before the polysilicon sales market has two significant features: First, small units of kilograms is measured; second, with excess profits. And, by the state industrial policy and local government support.
2007 year-end, polysilicon prices have reached 400 U.S. dollars / kilograms of high price to the mid-2008, the market spot price was as high as 450 U.S. dollars / kg. Corresponding with this is that the input of 1,500 tons / year production line or even smaller tons production line, even if still not enough because the scale of the economy, the overall cost will not be more than 80 U.S. dollars / kg. As long as there are goods, to be looting immediately.
Super profits when polysilicon sales presentation, this market investors will inevitably rush. After the year 2007, launched a production line of a kiloton, the investment will reach 2 billion yuan, which actually is not some small businesses to admission to play the game, but at that time or even of 200-300 tons / year of small projects have launched flock to this "gold mine." Most small businesses do not actually have a long-term development plan, but want to earn the vote. The local government to boost GDP growth to support their integration into industry directory, all the way green can imagine.
Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Anhui, more than 20 provinces, nearly 50 companies, which are being vigorously launched two such high energy consumption, high investment, high return projects. If the planning capacity of these manufacturers to achieve a comprehensive basis, it will be more than 100,000 tons, far exceeding the market demand for their endurance.
In just two years, an original high investment, high return, a sunrise industry with high barriers to entry into industries with excess capacity blink of an eye, which once again shows the great industrial age in China's current development of various industries as a common?? in short supply - the size of the project with the - excess capacity - eliminating backward production capacity.
Local interests and central coordination of conflicts of interest are not synchronized, once again manifested; if an industry does not advance the central government for the overall planning and industrial access standard, then the excess capacity of the topic, will always be staged in China.
Polysilicon project is a high-energy consumption industries, did not meet the scale of 3000-5000 tons of single-line strengths, environmental pollution and the scale of the high cost economy is inevitable. After
impulse, there must be punishment to come. No one is expected to September 2008 Global Financial Crisis, not only the largest market for photovoltaic industry in Germany, Belgium, demand has slowed, more importantly, support the financial capital has been put into operation plans polysilicon project have stranded. On the other hand, the market price of polysilicon from the 400 U.S. dollars / kg, falling to 50-60 dollars / kg.
Profits is no longer, and return to the era of 2007, profits may no longer have any.
That 50-60 dollars / kg price, compared to the seven major polysilicon manufacturers international USD 30 / kg cost of production, profit rich enough. As deputy general manager of Jiangsu to Silicon Lvjin Biao said, they entered the industry in 2006 when, at the price of 30-40 dollars / kg, and later rose to 300-400 U.S. dollars / kg profits from non-normal, the current This profit is the industry norm.
When those single production up to 1,000 tons of only 300 tons of projects, production costs remain at 80 U.S. dollars / kg, even worse, such a scale simply can not lower and lower cost, then only the shutdown facing huge losses caused by .
2009 9 the end of "National Development (2009) 38 Man" has been revealed clear criteria, in principle, to approve the project to expand production capacity may not be delegated approval authority, 3,000 tons of the following items are no longer approved, the new polysilicon project to restore power consumption of less than 60 kWh / kg.
While this is relatively late industrial access standard policy, but better than nothing. In accordance with the current market structure, almost no more new players into the large setup initially for. Next, will be a scale, cost, quality of knock-out tournament.
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