Sugar Medium-term strength. Sugar is undoubtedly the trend of the past six months the most agricultural products (17.26,0.13,0.76%) futures. Since USDA08 released in November, "the world's sugar supply and demand report," So far, the main sugar futures prices rose 30-40% in general, New York, No. 11 raw sugar rose from 11.6 cents to 15.6 cents; domestic white Granulated sugar Futures prices have also cut the anticipation of the rise from 3,000 yuan per ton to 4,100 yuan or more.
Global sugar pattern. From the concentration of view, sugar exports sugar production Sugar consumption sugar imports, the CR4 was 65%, 53%, 44%, 23%. Brazilian sugar production accounts for 22% of global production, export share is as high as 43%, is the world's largest sugar supplier, has a decisive influence on market position and price.
Global sugar supply is still tight. 08/09 USDA estimates the annual global sugar production will fall 6.3% year on year to 1.48 million tonnes, but the 09/10 annual production will rise 7.5 percent to 159 million tons, but inventory levels have dropped consecutive year to 31.21 million tons, the supply of tight.
India cut into the key variables. Although both the production or export of India can not be compared with Brazil, has become the world's sugar supply and demand pattern of the past two years, changes in key variables. As agricultural policy, infrastructure, climate change causes the cut, India by the 07/08 years had become the second largest export is now the fifth largest importing country, the recent measures to abolish import tariffs on sugar to the international price of sugar is played a large turnout.
Domestic sugar production cuts. 08/09 USDA estimated China's annual sugar production, consumption and ending stocks were 13.5 million tons, 14.68 million tons and 340 tons, compared with November 2008 to reduce the estimated value of 14.5%, respectively, decreased 10.2%, 1.5% objectively reflect the actual production of domestic sugar. The supply of new crop season
unspeakable loose. 09/10 USDA forecast the annual Chinese sugar production, consumption and ending stocks were 14.5 million tons, 15.41 million tons and 3.35 million tons, compared with the 08/09 year estimates, production and consumption increased by 7.4% and 5.0% inventory was reduced by 1.5% and imports increased from 250,000 to 900,000 tons, the domestic sugar supply and demand of the new crop season is still difficult to loose, sugar prices are expected to be medium-term support.
Investment Recommendation: We maintain the basic pre-judgment of the domestic price of sugar, as sugar prices rose early on the demand side of the attitude of delay caused by too few stocks, the peak season around the corner makes it difficult spot price of sugar fell, supporting the futures price formation. In the current price of sugar, the sugar company's performance after the second quarter will continue to improve, is expected to gradually return to 2007 levels. Although the valuation of listed companies in the lack of sugar obvious advantage, but Prices Expectations and performance recovery is still possible to promote the stock continued to rise, recommended to the EPS on the most sensitive of Nanning Sugar sugar (13.50,0.17,1.28%), and the most stable in the grain fundamentals Tuen River (11.59,0.08,0.70%) . I am a professional writer from China B2B Market, which contains a great deal of information about round toe boots , rubber snakes, welcome to visit!
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