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Reports of disappearances are up 8 percent so far this year in El Salvador compared to 2011, calling into question the achievements of a gangtruce which has slashed murders by some 60 percent in the last twomonths. In the first four months of 2012, 692 people were reported missingto the government forensic office, Medicina Legal, compared to 636during the same period last year, reports La Prensa Grafica an 8 percent rise. This year's statistics only apply to San Salvador , but according to the newspaper, disappearances outside thecapital are not usually registered. InSight Crime Analysis The number of disappeared could undermine the achievements of a gang truce in the country, which has seen murders drop by around 60 percent since the country's two main gangs made a ceasefire in earlyMarch. Leaders of Barrio 18 and the Mara Salvatrucha ( MS-13 ) agreed to stop killing each other's members and suspend attackson members of the security forces for an undefined period, whichappears to still be ongoing. RELATED: Think you know Latin America? Take our geography quiz! There were 255 murders registered in March, some 147 in April , and 76 in the first 15 days of May. This averages at about six killings a day, down some 60percent from the first two months of the year. If we assume, however, that the vast majority of the disappearedare now dead, March and April would have seen 391 and 294 murders,respectively, using the number of disappeared cited by La PrensaGrafica. This would effectively wipe out the security gains of thegang truce. In reality the effect would not be as dramatic as this, becausethose who went missing before the gang truce were not counted inthe murder figures for that period either. There has not been adramatic jump in disappearances reported since the truce thenumber stood at 197 in January, 212 in February, 136 in March and147 in April. This would leave 2012 on course for the same level ofreported disappearances as last year, which saw 2,076. The decreasein killings, then, would still stand. However, it is worth bearing in mind that the phenomenon ofdisappearing murder victims, so that their bodies are never found,could make a substantial difference to the rate of killings andcould undermine the gains of the truce. The true number of the disappeared is likely far higher than those reported, however, as somefamilies do not report their relatives missing, for fear ofreprisals. The government has been careful to lower expectations over thetruce, pointing out that it will not be able to bring gang violence to an end. Thefact that disappearances, which are often attributed to gangs, havecontinued at a steady rate attests to this. Hannah Stone is a writer for Insight Organized Crime in the Americas , which provides research, analysis, and investigation of thecriminal world throughout the region. Find all of her research here . I am an expert from portablemultimediastorageplayer.com, while we provides the quality product, such as Tablet PC Accessories Manufacturer , Mp5 Game Portable Multimedia Player, Mini Clip Mp3 Player,and more.
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