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Texas pastures took a beating last year due to historic droughtconditions, Johnson said. He urged producers to use caution andcarefully develop a strategy to rebuild herds. Since 1971, Texas isdown some 25 percent in cow inventory, he said. "2011 was the single largest decline in beef cow numberswe"ve ever seen," he said. "All of these things aresupportive of high calf prices and in support of beef overall. Weare not in a situation where we are building cow-calf numbersup." The price forecast looking ahead to April 2013 is $1.63 perhundredweight for 700-pound calves. "Coupled with declining cow numbers, it looks like these highprices are here for a while," he said. "Cattle on feedprices are going higher as well as live cattle prices. Fewer cows,fewer calves and less beef… that"s signaling higherprices." Other factors such as global finance crisis could affect consumerspending on beef. "If people don"t have money to pay for electricity, theydon"t have money to buy beef," he said. In the meantime, Johnson said feedlot return margins are thin dueto fewer calves available to put on feed. He said feedlots are"like hotels, and the occupancy rates haven"t been toogood." There are also infrastructure issues, such as operational costs atauction barns. "With small runs at the auction barns, they still have to payfor overhead costs," he said. Ultimately, if a rancher decides to restock, how much are theywilling to pay?, Johnson asked. Should they buy replacement heifersor cow-calf pairs? When it comes to replacement heifers, Johnson said beef producersshould consider how much they can sell their heifers versus raisingthem. With market prices climbing, Johnson said producers may electto sell those animals and make a nice profit. "You really have to answer the question: ‘Am I willingto forgo that paycheck I would receive holding on to thatreplacement heifer rather than selling it?"" Johnsonsaid. "It"s going to be two years before I get thatfirst paycheck out of that animal if I hold on to it and raise itas a replacement.". I am an expert from cavitationslimmingmachine.com, while we provides the quality product, such as Crystal Microdermabrasion Machine Manufacturer , China Body Slimming Machine, Cavitation Slimming Machine,and more.
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