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Facebook will become something of a has-been within five to eightyears, according to one analyst. And while that assertion has raised a ruckus online this week,other industry analysts wouldn't be shocked if the prediction comestrue. "In five to eight years they are going to disappear in the way thatYahoo has disappeared," said Eric Jackson, founder of IronfireCapital while appearing on CNBC's Squawk on the Street . "Yahoo is still making money. It's still profitable, still has13,000 employees working for it. But it's 10% of the value that itwas at the height of 2000. For all intents and purposes, it'sdisappeared." Jackson noted that so far there have been three generations ofInternet companies. Yahoo, a Web portal, is a great example as an online pioneer . Facebook then swept in as the second generation with the wave ofsocial media. The third generation is all about mobile. One of the problems for Facebook is that the company has not beenable to monetize its burgeoning mobile base . Company executives even raised the issue in its pre-IPO filingswith the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission this spring. And that could really hold the company back and give others achance to flourish in its place. "Look at how Google has struggled moving into social, and I thinkFacebook is going to have the same kind of challenges moving intomobile," said Jackson. The prediction of Facebook's demise comes just weeks after the social network's troubled IPO . Although many financial analysts had expected the company's stockto rocket from the initial offering price of $38 a share to $50 or even $90 a share, the stock never popped. At the market close today, Facebook's stock price was down to$25.87, well below its initial offering. Patrick Moorhead, an analyst with Moor Insights & Strategy,doesn't agree that Facebook will slip to become a second-tierplayer in under 10 years. But he does think the company may havesome troubles ahead. "Facebook won't disappear in five years, but I'm confident theywon't see the same growth rates as they are seeing today," headded. "Even with the rise of more vertically-oriented sites likePinterest, Instagram and Goba , consumers will need a social home-base where all theiracquaintances and friends are accessible." However, there's always a new company nipping at the heels of everymarket leader and it will be no different for Facebook. "If Facebook fades, it will be at the rise of other, more nimblecompanies," said Moorhead. "This is no different than the fading ofAltaVista, AOL and Yahoo. Consumer taste and technologies change,and if you are the 800-pound gorilla and miss a beat, you may beheaded down." Dan Olds, an analyst with The Gabriel Consulting Group, saidJackson is right that mobile will play an increasingly importantrole for any Internet company, especially social networks. However,he said it's premature to count Facebook out of the mobile game. "Facebook is making slow progress on the mobile front," he said."Most users find the interface to be hard to see and use. ButFacebook has recently redesigned its mobile interface to make iteasier to see pictures, for example, which is a step in the rightdirection. But they also need to build a mobile-enhanced businessmodel in order to attract advertisers, as well." Brad Shimmin, an analyst with CurrentAnalysis, agrees that mobilewill be important - either as a platform that helps Facebookprosper or as a platform that causes it to stumble. "It is simply a hugely important market driver, which will mostlikely play a significant role in Facebook's future, depending uponwhether or not the company is able to respond to this sweepingtrend," he added. "I think we're still a ways out from seeingwhether or not their recent mobility endeavors are going to playout in a positive way. But as with their security issues in thepast, it is in Facebook's overall favor that they're attempting totackle this difficult area." Olds noted that Facebook is no longer the young start-up it oncewas and its executives are billionaires and millionaires. Thatmeans there will always be someone quick to point a finger at itschallenges and call for its demise. "Whenever a big successful company stumbles or even fails to movequickly enough in the right direction, there's always a chorus offolks ready to kick them at least a few times," said Olds. "There'sa lot of that with Facebook these days and we can expect to hearmore of this over time." Sharon Gaudin covers the Internet and Web 2.0, emergingtechnologies, and desktop and laptop chips for Computerworld.Follow Sharon on Twitter at @sgaudin , on Google+ or subscribe to Sharon's RSS feed . Her email address is. See more by Sharon Gaudin on Computerworld.com . Read more about web 2.0 and web apps in Computerworld's Web 2.0 and Web Apps Topic Center. We are high quality suppliers, our products such as Casting Machine Parts , China Precision Sheet Metal Fabrication for oversee buyer. To know more, please visits Precision Milling Machined Parts.
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