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The United States , which is likely to chip in for around half of the annual cost ofkeeping the security forces going, is tired enough of paying out,judging by attitudes in Congress and recent public opinion polls.European countries seem even less inclined to keep the fundinggoing. You trade off risks [in cutting back on forces] against cost, says James Dobbins , a former US envoy to Afghanistan who now directs security studiesat the RAND Corp. The annual cost of keeping a force of 350,000 going was pegged at$6.5 billion, while the cost of maintaining the smaller230,000-strong force is estimated at $4.1 billion a $2billion-plus annual savings. Those numbers assume that Afghanistan on its own could only affordto field about 30,000 security personnel clearly a woefullyinadequate number. Ambassador Dobbins cautions that the lower figure beingcontemplated for Afghan security forces would most likely not bereached right off in 2015, but would be achieved gradually oversubsequent years when no one knows what the security conditionsin Afghanistan will be. Dobbins adds that much of the reduction is likely to be realizedthrough natural attrition desertion rates have come down butremain relatively high and not by suddenly dismissing tens ofthousands of soldiers and police. With continuing training by NATO and partner countries, he adds, asmaller but more efficient and better-trained security force shouldbe able to make up for some of the reduction in size. But other defense experts say that, even considering thequalitative progress the army and police have made already, the230,000 figure could be cutting things dangerously close to thebone. Michael O Hanlon, a defense policy analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington , notes that Iraq , a country with roughly the same population as Afghanistan,maintains army and police forces of about 670,000. And Afghanistantoday actually has more than 400,000 security personnel on theground, between Afghan and NATO forces, he adds. The proposal for considerably smaller Afghan army and police forcesassumes that the insurgency threat will have been further reducedby the time NATO combat forces leave. But, O Hanlon asks, what ifthat s not the case? That question is what leads some Afghanistan experts to say thatthe US and NATO must focus on reaching a political settlement among Afghanistan s warring elements and with the support ofneighboring countries to reduce the need for the larger numberof security forces. Whether or not this lower figure [for Afghan security forces] isadequate depends a lot on the drivers of the conflict, and that sthe political side, says Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress in Washington. In my view, the 230,000 is a number arrived at byassuming the political challenges are addressed. Those challenges include revitalizing political reforms, addressingcorruption convincingly in the eyes of average Afghan citizens, andpursuing reconciliation with the Taliban , Mr. Katulis says. Where reconciliation may stand two years from now when NATOwithdraws its last combat troops, no one can say. But as NATOleaders gather to discuss Afghanistan s long-term security needs,the reality is that nascent US-Taliban talks are suspended andshowing scant sign of reviving any time soon. I am an expert from ledrgbfloodlight.com, while we provides the quality product, such as Warehouse Pendant Light Manufacturer , Led Night Light Bulbs, LED Panel Grow Lights,and more.
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