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Home prices stall, breaking three-month streak of rising prices - Corrosive Storage Cabinet by vacuumse mse





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Home prices stall, breaking three-month streak of rising prices - Corrosive Storage Cabinet by
Article Posted: 12/23/2012
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Articles Written: 1079
Word Count: 673
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Home prices stall, breaking three-month streak of rising prices - Corrosive Storage Cabinet


 
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Note: "Turnaround" metros are those with largest percentage changefrom decrease to increase (first column) or increase to decrease(second column), comparing recent Q-o-Q (Feb-May 2012) withpreceding Y-o-Y (Feb 2011-Feb 2012). Metros listed in alphabeticalorder. Foreclosures Hold Back Price Recovery The Trulia Price Monitor has always included REO-stage ("real estate owned") foreclosurelistings, but for this month's Monitor, we decided to take acloser look at how foreclosures are affecting home prices. The typical listing price of a foreclosed home, after adjusting forproperty and neighborhood attributes, is about 17 percent lowerthan a non-foreclosed home.

And the gap has been growing: whereasasking prices overall fell 0.2 percent Y-o-Y, asking prices excluding foreclosures rose 1.0 percent Y-o-Y, while foreclosure prices fell 5.8 percentY-o-Y. Especially in metros where the housing bubble led to widespreaddefaults, foreclosures are dragging down the overall price trend.For example, in hard-hit Las Vegas, Atlanta and Sacramento (whereforeclosures make up about half of the homes on Trulia), askingprices actually rose Y-o-Y when we excluded foreclosures from our calculations. Butwith foreclosures included, prices declined Y-o-Y. Why the Housing Market Needs a Healthy Job Market As house prices are slowly beginning to recover, we see three keyfactors driving local price changes: 1) Foreclosures : As discussed above, metros where foreclosures make up a larger share of the listed homes for sale tend to havesmaller price gains or larger price declines. 2) Rebound effect : Metros where prices fell more from the peak of the housing bubbleto the bottom during the bust tend to have larger price gains now.This is because many of the hardest-hit metros during the bust areattracting demand among investors, foreigners and others who arelooking for discounted homes.

3) Jobs : Metros with faster job growth tend to have larger price gains.This section takes a closer look at jobs and prices. Jobs matter for price growth because a strong job market fuelsdemand both for renting , which we talk about below, and for buying homes . The graph below shows this relationship: San Jose , Austin , Denver , Phoenix and the suburban Detroit area of Warren - Troy - Farmington Hills all had strong asking-price growth and strong job growth over thepast year. (The job growth data are from the Bureau of LaborStatistics and are April 2011 to April 2012, which are the latestpublished data.) But the relationship between job growth andasking-price growth is far from tight: three Florida metros hadlarge price increases with only modest job growth ( Miami ) or job losses ( West Palm Beach and Cape Coral - Fort Myers ).

These Florida metros had strong price growth without strong jobgrowth thanks to two other factors in their favor: fewerforeclosures for sale (many foreclosures in Florida haven'tcompleted the slow foreclosure process and made it onto themarket), and having had bigger price declines during the bust fromwhich to rebound. Of the three factors driving price increases, job growth is thebest long-term bet. Why not the others? The rebound effect can'tlast forever -- it is, by definition, a rebound. And the relativelylow share of foreclosures among listed homes in Florida today (compared with California , Nevada and Georgia ) should go up as the state's slow process churns out moreforeclosures. Once that happens, we can expect prices to falter.

As ever, the housing market depends on jobs, both nationally andlocally. Rent Increases Accelerate to 6 Percent Nationally Finally, let's look at rents . In May, rents were 6.0 percent higher than they were a year ago,up from the 5.4 percent Y-o-Y rent increase in April, and 4.8percent in March. [1] That means that finding a cheap apartment isn't getting anyeasier. In San Francisco, rents rose 14.4 percent Y-o-Y in May;Oakland, Miami and Denver rents are also up over 10 percent Y-o-Y.Of the 25 largest rental markets in the U.S., only in Las Vegas didrents decline Y-o-Y.

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