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Insight: u.s. hedge funds find ways to trade euro misery - Kraft Bubble Mailer Manufacturer by icdenta icdenta





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Insight: u.s. hedge funds find ways to trade euro misery - Kraft Bubble Mailer Manufacturer by
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Insight: u.s. hedge funds find ways to trade euro misery - Kraft Bubble Mailer Manufacturer


 
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But it's unlikely the current European monetary crisis and worriesabout Greece's potential exit from the euro zone will give rise toan investing legend like Soros, who made $1 billion in 1992 bybetting on a decline in the price of the pound. Instead, there are a multitude of strategies to play Europe'stroubles, and many different participants, according to U.S. hedgefund managers. "There is not room for one player to have such impact," said JohnBrynjolfsson, whose California-based Armored Wolf hedge fund hasbeen betting against the euro for quite some time. "Financialmarkets are so much bigger today." A spokesman for Soros, who last year converted his Soros FundManagement to a family office and stopped managing money foroutside investors, could not be reached for comment.

Brynjolfsson and several other U.S. money managers who are tryingto profit from Europe's misery say they expect the current crisisto produce a lot of winners. So far this year, the euro is down 3.3 percent against the U.S.dollar. U.S.

money managers say it's hard to swing for the fences the waySoros did because institutional investors are far more squeamishabout having too much money riding on any single trade. There isalso heightened sensitivity from pensions and endowments to takingan investment strategy that might spark political outrage fromEuropean leaders. Another thing working against the rise of a new Soros is thattrading the euro zone, or even the fallout from a Greek exit, is amuch more complicated than betting against a single currency. Money managers are playing the euro zone crisis by tradingcurrencies, wagering on the direction of bank stocks or usingderivatives like credit default swaps to bet on potential corporateand bank failures. Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn recently saidhe is bullish on gold and gold miners, in part because of concernabout the fallout from a euro zone meltdown.

Some managers are even going both short and long on differentEuropean sovereign debt, depending on their views of the financialstability of different countries. Adam Fisher, manager of the $320 million Commonwealth OpportunityCapital hedge fund, noted that Soros faced a "single country, not17 different countries, one decision maker, not 17." Fisher's fund, which has more than 80 percent of its money investedin Europe, is taking a somewhat contrarian position by owning theEuropean sovereign debt of Germany, the Netherlands, Italy andSpain. Hedge fund managers point out that given the up-and-down nature ofthe euro zone crisis, most hedge funds have been in and out oftrades or forced to adjust positions depending on the changingpolitical winds. Earlier this year, for instance, it looked like concern aboutGreece exiting the euro had passed. But with the recent results ofthe Greek election at odds with the austerity measures demanded byits currency partners, the risk of a Greek departure from the eurozone has risen dramatically.

Recently, Fisher said his Los Angeles-based fund had reduced thesize of some of its more bullish sovereign debt trades because hebelieves there will be "violent" market swings this summer. "It is going to be incredibly difficult to manage risk through thatenvironment," said Fisher, whose fund was up 8.8 percent throughApril. "I don't think hedging will do anything. The way you hedge,is you sell.

You don't subtract risk by adding risk." Brynjolfsson, a former top portfolio manager for bond mutual fundfirm Pacific Investment Management Co, is betting on Greece exitingthe euro. He said it will be hard for European leaders to take thenecessary steps to appease the Greek government without infuriatingpoliticians in other euro zone countries. "As the wheels began falling off the bus, we adjusted to have ashort bias and that has worked out," said Brynjolfsson, whose $750million hedge fund is up 2 percent this year, largely on its shortbet against the euro. Axel Merk, president and chief executive officer of MerkInvestments, an investment advisory firm that specializes incurrencies, said the growing problems with Greece and the euro zoneled him recently to dump all the euros in his $517 million MerkHard Currency Fund, which is up 2.29 percent for the year.

Merk now favors the Singapore dollar, which has climbed 1.34percent since January. Ray Dalio's $120 billion Bridgewater Associates gained 23 percentin 2011 in part because of profits made from a series of Europeanbets, said a person familiar with the Westport, Conn.-based fundwho declined to discuss specifics of the strategy. In a recentinterview with Barron's, Dalio said European banks "are nowover-leveraged and can't expand their balance sheets" and Europeannations "don't have enough buyers of their debt." Dalio may be the U.S. money manager who comes closest to rivalingthe Soros of two decades ago.

His hedge fund is the industry'slargest and he widely regarded as one of the most successfulmanagers. Among the ways funds are playing the European turmoil, some arebetting against the fortunes of Spanish and Italian banks insteadof simply focusing on sovereign debt. John Paulson, among others, bets against European sovereign debt asway to hedge the overall portfolio of his Paulson & Co hedgefund firm. Daniel Loeb's Third Point fund put on a long position in Portuguesesovereign bonds in the first quarter because the New York-basedmanager believed the nation is in better shape than others in theeuro zone.

"Portugal's debt profile is more consistent with Italy's thanGreece's, its banks are substantially healthier than Spain's, andits government has enacted more aggressive labor reforms and ismore stable than regimes in both countries," Loeb wrote in a May 16investors' letter seen by Reuters. If nothing else, the European crisis is forcing managers to keepcoming up with new strategies to trade. One might say it's almostbecome an incubator for hedge fund managers to stretch theirinvestment acumen. Merk said he might look again at Europe if the political andfinancial situation gets more clarity.

But he would likely do it abit differently. "If there is clarity in the process again, then we will certainlylook at Europe again," he said. "But not through Greek debt, butthrough German bills." (Reporting By Svea Herbst-Bayliss and Katya Wachtel; edited byMatthew Goldstein, Jennifer Ablan, Martin Howell).

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