UNDATED This is the worst of times to be a Liberal. Right? Ofcourse right. NDP leader Tom Mulcair is aggressively carving out acommodious niche left of centre. Prime Minister Stephen Harper,finally, is establishing his bona fides as an economicconservative.
There's no room betwixt or between for the old Grits,exhausted as they are by three consecutive losses. Let them sipsingle malt by the hearth and, as John Masefield wrote,"remember the beauty of fire, from the beauty of embers." Not necessarily. We may agree on this: We now have, for the first time many of uscan remember, principles-based politics. Here's Mulcair, environmentalist firebrand, with an entire industryanxious to persuade him that it is not, in fact, the modern face ofevil. And here's Harper, doggedly driving the relationship between Ottawaand the economy through a full-wash cycle.
The stage is set for anepic battle between left and right, surely, with resourcedevelopment as the fulcrum. It's a compelling scenario, but one that ignores a couple of ratherimportant wild cards. What if, for example, when asked to choosebetween two parties bent on economic transformation, one to theleft and one to the right, Canadians decide they like things moreor less as they are? And what if, when called upon to choosebetween an intelligent, aggressive, cynical, strategically giftedleader of the right (Harper), and an intelligent, aggressive,cynical, strategically gifted leader of the left (Mulcair),Canadians say "neither"? Among the most curious aspects of Stephen Harper's time ingovernment is how the cautious policy direction diverges from thenasty tone. Even now, as they seek to drive "transformational"change, the Conservatives are taking baby steps.
When their policyhand touches the hot stove of public opinion as it did whenPublic Security Minister Vic Toews bungled the online snooping bill they back away. But in their demeanor towards the opposition,the government remains reflexively on a war footing. Even after bill C-30, and robocalls, and the F-35 audit, forexample, Conservatives consistently decline to answer fairquestions in the House of Commons, instead spinning talking-pointdrivel. It's a demonstration of contempt for the opposition, theinstitution of Parliament, and ultimately for Canadians that hasbecome routine.
It's not something they seem inclined or able tochange. So: What political opportunities emerge in late 2014 if, by then,Canadians rather like the economic direction the Conservatives haveset - EI reform, immigration reform, refugee system reform, abudget that now looks likely to be in balance by 2015, are someexamples - but are also thoroughly sick of seeing the same faces,bearing the same smug grins, on the evening news? In 2015 it will be nine years of power for Harper. Other thanPierre Trudeau, who governed from 1968 until 1984, interrupted bynine months of Joe Clark in 1979, Canadian prime ministers tend toserve about a decade then out. It was this way for BrianMulroney, and also Jean Chretien.
This pattern positions theLiberals, it seems to me, to offer themselves as the small-cconservative alternative to the Conservatives just as theConservatives in their first five years offered themselves as thesmall-l alternative to the Liberals. Weak economic growth may deepen that dynamic. This is particularly true if Mulcair continues to beard the oilpatch. Short of admitting nothing can be done about "Dutchdisease," such as it is (the proposition that high resourceprofits are driving up the value of the loonie and hurtingtraditional manufacturing experts), Mulcair must impose a tax, orwhat amounts to one.
Likewise greenhouse-gas emissions. A third of Canadian emissionsare consumer-driven. If Mulcair means what he says, therefore, he must eventuallypropose a carbon tax. By 2015, and especially if the global economyis still struggling, Canadians may want nothing to do with highertaxes.
In fact, as a group, we don't seem particularly keen onhigher taxes at any time. Chretien won his third majority, in 2000,with a $100-billion, five-year tax cut. In two weeks, perhaps less, interim Liberal leader Bob Rae isexpected to launch his bid for the permanent Liberal leadership.His chief rival may be MP and former astronaut Marc Garneau.Whoever wins, they'll have two-an-a-half years to build a newpolicy kit, drawing on some of the most experienced and calculatingpolitical minds in Canada, all bent on exploiting the ideologicalgap between Conservatives and New Democrats. Should we assume all these clever people will fall flat on theirfaces and allow the most effective political vehicle in Canadianhistory to gently wash away down the river? Perhaps they will.
Butperhaps, they won't. Perhaps reports of the Liberal Party's deathare, as Mark Twain said upon reading his own obituary in 1897,exaggerated. Twitter.com\mdentandt. I am a professional writer from Printers, which contains a great deal of information about z3 convertible top , hino truck parts, welcome to visit!
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