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The much-awaited southwest monsoon could finally be on its way. TheIndia Meteorological Department on Tuesday predicted that themonsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on June 1, with a modelerror of plus or minus four days. [June 1 is the normal date for the onset of the system over Kerala,which is the entry point for the monsoon into the Indian mainland.Historical data show that the monsoon by and large keeps its datewith a standard deviation of just one week. There have, however,been instances when the onset had occurred around the middle of Mayitself, or had got postponed to mid-June. According to senior meteorologists at IMD, the earliest recordedonset was in 1918, when it set in on May 11, and the most delayedonset was in 1972, when people had to wait with bated breath tillJune 19]. The prediction of a normal onset comes on the heels of a forecastissued by IMD on April 26, that the southwest monsoon this year was"mostly likely" to be normal, with a rainfall of 99 percent of the long period average [LPA], with a model error of plusor minus 5 per cent. That forecast also noted that there was a 47 per cent probabilityof the rainfall being between 96 per cent and 104 per cent, 24 percent probability for it to be between 90-96 per cent, 17 per centprobability for it to be between 104-110 per cent, eight per centprobability for it being below 90 per cent, and four per centprobability for it being above 110 per cent of the LPA. In other words, rainfall was likely to be between 94 per cent and104 per cent of the LPA, with a greater possibility for it to benear the lower end of the band than the upper end. It remains to be seen if the onset would really take place aroundthe normal date, as there are still 15 days to go, and anythingcould happen in the meantime. As of now, there are brightprospects, as there are indications that the monsoon flow isstrengthening, and that it can appear over the Andaman Sea withinthe next few days, before moving on to Kerala. It also remains to be seen how the monsoon season actually unfolds,even if the onset of the monsoon over Kerala happens around thenormal date as there is no one-to-one association between the dateon onset over Kerala and the temporal and spatial spread of theseasonal rainfall over different parts of the country. I am an expert from siliconebakingmoulds.com, while we provides the quality product, such as China Silicone Baking Set , Silicone Baking Mat Manufacturer, Silicone Baking Mat,and more.
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