Analysts debate whether hollande can fix french economy - Custom Magazine Printing

But many people question whether the 57-year-old socialist is up tothe job. Hollande has been in politics for years. But he isan untested leader in troubled economic times. France'snational debt and unemployment are soaring. And the country'seconomy is barely growing.

Political analyst Bruno Cautres: "No one knows exactly the capacity of Francois Hollande to facehuge economic problems, to handle the job to be the Frenchpresident," said Cautres. But Cautres says Hollande surprised many people during thepresidential campaign by sounding increasingly presidential andcapable of handling tough issues. "Francois Hollande presented himself as a normal guy - the one whocan calm down all of the anguish of the French population over theeconomic crisis, with this changing world which is making theFrench population so [fearful] that eventually we are going to losethe social protection, that we are going to lose the socialsecurity that we are very attached to," he said. On the streets to Paris, Hollande supporters like 24-year-oldstudent Luiza Taiati are overjoyed by their candidate's victory.

Taiati says French leftists have been waiting for 20 years for aSocialist Party president. Under Sarkozy, she says there hasbeen economic uncertainty, with people having a difficult timemaking ends meet. But 33-year-old businessman Juan Pablo Vargas is worried about thefuture. "I'm very preoccupied on France and on Europe, especially becausewe're not sure Germany will continue to finance everything, ifHollande changes all the finances of France," said Vargas.

"I'mafraid [that France] might get isolated against Germany. And ifthat happens, well, it can be a collapse of the European Union,which would not be good for anybody." Hollande says he wants to alter a fiscal discipline agreementbetween 25 of the 27 European Union countries - including financialpowerhouse Germany. After his inauguration next week [May15], Hollande is expected to meet with Germany ChancellorAngela Merkel, who is a strong supporter of budget discipline. Economist Tomasz Michalski of France's HEC business school saysHollande's call for growth is resonating in other Europeancountries, as popular protests mount against economic austeritymeasures. "Mr.

Hollande is a very smart guy," said Michalski. "He's veryprecise in his language. He doesn't want to renegotiate thefiscal compact; he wants to modify and complete it by a growthpact. And this is where he and Mrs. Merkel can meet." But Michalski says the Socialist leader is making big promises forFrance and Europe - promises he might not be able to keep at a timewhen economic growth forecasts are bleak.

"Mr. Hollande cannot spend himself out of a recession," he said."He cannot spend more money; he cannot print more money. Theproblem with his policies is that in the short run, he may be ableto restore budget balance. But I don't see how on Earth he'sgoing to stimulate long-term growth for France." In many ways, Michalski says, Hollande's political fortuneswill not depend on his policies, but on external events.

If theglobal economy recovers, France's president-elect might be able todeliver on his promises. If not, Michalski says, Hollandemight meet the same political fate as outgoing President NicolasSarkozy.

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