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By Brian Ringland -ORT The Military Numbers Armed Forces 523,000 Army 350,000 with 220,000 conscripts Navy 18,000 Air Force 30,000 The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, viewed as the most loyal guardian of the ruling system, has another 125,000 men. Iran has nuclear facilities in full operation in at least the following listed locations: Arak, Bushehr, Natanz, Esfahan, Parchin, Lashkar Abad, Darkhovin and Arak. There have been new reports of other nuclear facilities in operation as well as new ones being constructed in mountains and underground. Iran has a successfully tested missile system in place. In 2008 Iran said it tested a missile with a range of nearly two thousand kilometers. It is becoming more and more evident that some sort of military confrontation between Iran and Israel as well as the West will take place. Current events and happenings in and around the region suggest that this may happen sooner rather than later. Iran has stated that it will never give up its nuclear ambitions. The sentiment coming out of Tehran has not changed at all. They have resolved to stick to their policies despite sanctions from the international community. Their nuclear scientists have been targeted and assassinated and a number of 'accidental' explosions have occurred in the last few years. Yet none of this has swayed Iran from pursuing what it calls a "peaceful nuclear energy program." Very recently Israel pointed out to the Americans exactly what 'red lines' Iran would have to cross to trigger a military response. President Obama recently clarified this administrations stance on Iran when he said, "I also don't, as a matter of sound policy, go around advertising exactly what our intentions are. But I think both the Iranian and the Israeli governments recognize that, when the United States says it is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, we mean what we say. " He also added " I don't bluff." The US still has a strong presence in South-Western Afghanistan along the border with Iran. There are major bases with American as well as mixed NATO forces in at least three very large air bases within one hundred miles of the Iranian/Afghanistan border. There is also a strong naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz that includes two American aircraft carrier groups. The US still has personnel in bases in Iraq too, also located strategically close to the Iranian border. The United States has the capability to put forces in place on almost all sides of Iran. Realistically any confrontation in the strait of Hormuz could be deadly, but would be over very quickly due to the far superior US Naval Forces. Some American casualties could be expected to be caused by small suicide boats laden with explosives. The Iranians have the ability to defend Iran with the large amount of ground forces that they have but the ability and general combat readiness of most of the Iranian Army is uncertain and untested. There is however a large core of battle hardened veterans from the Iraq-Iran war that still populates the most highly trained and most powerful of Iran's armed forces - The Revolutionary Guard. Iran does not have the ability to take its forces on any sort of a 'long march' away from its own borders and so is limited to a defensive posture in this instance. This is why Iran repeatedly trumps its successes in its missile programs. This is the only way for Iran to strike out beyond its own borders. The military situation on the ground has ensured that this would be the military route that Iran would have to take. The Israeli Air Force has the ability to strike Iran but would have to take a long route around forbidden airspace to get there which for a lot of Israeli planes means re-fueling in transit. Whether or not Israel has the ability to destroy completely Iran's nuclear infrastructure is another unknown. Not enough is known about how deep and how protected Iran's nuclear facilities are. Israel too is limited by how many feet it could realistically put on the ground. The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated the strength of the ground forces at 125,000 troops, including 40,000 career soldiers and 85,000 conscripts, with an additional 600,000 men and women in the reserves. This situation has led to Israel to rely heavily on missile defense systems as well as offense weapons that can strike Iran from Israel. It is almost certain that any military action against Iran will involve the US. Not just Israel. There is no military advantage for Iran's current stance toward Israel and the West. The continuous call for Israels destruction as well as evidence of a nuclear weapons program doesn't guarantee Iran any kind of advantage at the political level either. This is not North Korea. Iran can feed its citizens. People are not starving. This is a modern nation. The current course that the government in Iran is taking will ultimately lead to confrontation with the West and Israel, (a confrontation that will undoubtedly leave Iran devastated). This has not swayed policy in Tehran in the least. Recent elections in Iran changed nothing as there is currently no real opposition to the ruling party. Elections there are generally looked on as being rigged. The hope for any sort of diplomatic solution to the crisis is fading fast. There is an election coming soon in the US. The question there is, if re-elected, does the Obama administration want to deal with the Iranian issue before or after an election?Talk recently out of the White House suggests that the Democrats are waiting to see how badly the Republican Party injures itself in its run up to choosing a new Republican candidate for President. The Republican nomination race could in itself assure a Democrat victory in which case President Obama could try and convince Israel to hold off on any military strikes against Iran until after the election is over. Brian Ringland - The Overrated Truth - March 2012
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