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Strathclyde Associates Market Outlook March 2010 by Strathclyde Associates
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Strathclyde Associates Market Outlook March 2010 |
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Finance & Investment
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A market segment that we have been watching closely for a long time is renewable, green, clean fuels. The US Energy Policy and Conservation Act (signed into law by President Ford in 1975), the 1990 Clean Air Act and the 1992 Energy policy Act gave rise to fight over such issues as subsidies, support for development initiatives, favourable tax treatment, loan guarantees, partnership agreements and other considerations too numerous to mention. How all these competing stakeholder interest and legislatives initiatives would ultimately influence what would happen was far from evident – the devil was always in the details that would eventually emerge – and investors stayed away in droves. It certainly didn’t help when USA today wrote, “Clean energy has a dirty secret. It isn’t cheap.” Wisely, they have gone on to modify their doom-laden statement by writing that renewable, green energy is widely supported to fight global warming... And that high fossil fuel prices and a cap on power plant emissions could make clean energy competitive with – or even cheaper than - conventional energy. In addition, few issues sparked more environmental fear mongering than the growing field of biotechnology. Fortunately, the NCPA (National Centre for Policy Analysis) Scholars set forth their beliefs that biotechnology has the potential to produce countless benefits to human nutrition, human health and the environment of natural resources whilst also contributing to the clean and green energy sector. As a result of healthy government subsidies and mandates, the bio fuel industry is expanding at a rapid pace. Already it is a multi-billion dollar enterprise. Clean, green, renewable fuels appear a more attractive proposition than ever before. We believe that the time is now right to take a position in this market segment which now represents a multi-billion-dollar opportunity, not only for stakeholders but also for investors looking at, much better than, reasonable growth. “Any Financial Advisor will tell you that you don’t have your money in any one thing”, says senior portfolio manager, Robert Auer in Indianapolis. Here at Strathclyde Associates we wholeheartedly endorse that philosophy and are constantly in consultations with our clients regarding the diversification and management of their portfolio. This remark was prompted by the highest spate of insider selling in more than a year. Conventional wisdom says it’s time to sell when corporate leaders start cashing in on gains because it signals a lack of confidence with the corporate outlook. However, many factors can muddy the bigger picture when trying to draw a conclusion from insider selling. Executives have sold personal holdings for other reasons over the past year, analysts say, including cash-flow problems following the wipe-out in equities, tighter credit controls and a desire for greater diversification. A percentage of selling volume is made up of options on the company’s stock which are generally solve because they are about to expire. After the shock of seeing large chunks of their wealth destroyed during the crisis, corporate insider are more likely to be selling some holdings in their own companies and diversifying more into other stocks. Concern over the depreciating value of the US dollar and the global economic crisis is prompting calls for policymakers to consider creating and using a “supranational currency”, such as special drawing rights (SDR’s), as their new global reserve currency. The SDR is an international reserve asset allocated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to member countries. While expressed in US dollars, its currency value is based on market exchange rates of a basket of four major currencies – the Euro, UK pound sterling, Japanese yen and the US dollar – making it less prone to volatility. SDR’s can be exchanged for freely usable currencies which is why more and more countries are including them in their reserve currency mix. High profile leaders like Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, and the Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, have also added their voices to the need for the replacement of the globally dominant US dollar. Sterling chair Professor of Economics, M.S.G. Bautista, estimates that whilst US dollars currently account for 62% of all reserves in the world, the euro and the UK pound continue to grow appreciably. We are continuing to monitor exciting European stocks for our valued clients, and welcome new clients to get the most out of the market with us. Strathclyde Associates is a full service brokerage firm with many years experience in providing a wide array of services globally to a vast group of clients that include private individuals, financial institutions, governments and corporations.
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