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China's currency is still easy credit in the year or up to 10 trillion by ayay wang
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China's currency is still easy credit in the year or up to 10 trillion by AYAY WANG
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| Article Posted: 07/28/2010 |
| Article Views: 123 |
| Articles Written: 2282 - MORE ARTICLES FROM THIS AUTHOR |
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China's currency is still easy credit in the year or up to 10 trillion |
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Business,Business News,Business Opportunities
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8 credit data gave the market an incredible unexpected results, new yuan loans 410.4 billion yuan higher than the average market expectations. This release a number of investment banks predicted that China is still extremely loose monetary conditions, the majority opinion that the total amount of credit throughout the year will be about 10 trillion, and the end of each quarter may have "shot up" sign appeared.
So easy monetary conditions, inflation pressures have been inevitable.
Instruments into loans Merrill Lynch Asia-Pacific economist Lu Ting said that for the second half of the liquid do not worry. On the one hand, the first half of 7.4 trillion loans are not "real" level, of which 1.7 trillion is a bill financing the form of new loans; the other hand, the balance of the second half of the financing instruments declined, the actual value of new loans a month can raise 2000 100 million to 300 billion.
According to Nomura's estimates, if the net of bills discounted factor, in August of new flows to the real economy, loans reached 687 billion yuan in fact, the fifth largest single-month increase in the past. Nomura Securities chief economist Mingchun Sun said China, the first half of the next bank to tighten credit because of fears the central bank, have the bill financing as a line of credit of the reservoir, now banks have begun to transform the notes into a real project loans. As of August 31, Chinese banks balance sheets, the outstanding amount of 3.2 trillion yuan discount notes, note in the rest of this year, the bank has plenty of space to put more paper into the real discount The project loan.
Jun Ma, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank expect the next few months, loans will remain at an average of around 400 billion the size of the monthly, quarterly weekend slightly. New credit line is expected this year to 9.8 trillion next year will drop to about 7 trillion. China's macro-economist at Goldman Sachs Asia Song Yu also pointed out that taking into account the rest of the year, there will be a large number of bills discounted loans to maturity, and commercial banks may be in September and December due to increase lending scale, should the current pace of credit expansion Add RMB 400 billion per month to 5,000 yuan, the total year 2009, approximately 10 trillion yuan.
Money overall tone "loose"
Lu Ting said. "While some policy fine-tuning has been used to cool the stock and property markets, the overall tone of monetary and credit policy before the Spring Festival next year will remain 'relatively relaxed'."
In Ma's view, the M2 growth rate of nominal GDP growth rate higher than 20 basis points, suggesting that inflation is inevitable. Mingchun Sun also pointed out that the extremely lax monetary conditions in China is unlikely to change soon, even if the overall loan growth slowed in the second half, the real economy will not be a lack of liquidity. Formation of asset price bubbles in China, "inevitable, and will only increase and may exceed 2007."
Wang Qing, chief economist for Greater China of Morgan Stanley, said, "China's monetary tightening is three steps. First, credit control, followed by the reserve increases, and finally raise interest rates." Wang said, "Early next year, the entire loan, money growth will start the handover process of normalization, with nominal GDP growth rate of credit growth began almost the same. taking into account the nominal GDP growth next year, or up to 14% to 15% next year monetary and credit growth rate will reach 16% to 17%. "
Mingchun Sun points out that until 2011, although not serious CPI inflation, but expected the central bank will raise interest rates in 2010, 81 basis points rate hike in 2011 of 108 basis points rate hike as early as possible in 2010 March. Rate hike is in order to avoid negative real deposit rates.
More content "" HC refractory Network China Refractory Information Network Refractory Network I am an expert from China Crafts Suppliers, usually analyzes all kind of industries situation, such as air polishers , electrical outlet strips.
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