Currently, the dawn of the global economic recovery has been shown to stabilize the macro side and did not change the policy side, supporting the strength of the market still take a good, strong external and domestic stock market support commodity markets. In addition, the dollar continues to put short-term, will also boost commodity markets. On soybean, although the weather this year than in previous years was much more moderate speculation, and the prices have been low oscillation. Before, many analysts expect the soybean market is estimated to be the start of soybean harvest until the occasion of the Northern Hemisphere, but the author believes that improving fundamentals and the current weak U.S. dollar, driven in August Beans Market is expected to start early.
One, good weather, the U.S. soybean supply pressure remains
In 2009/2010 a record U.S. soybean acreage, the U.S. soybean supply of beans for the new year will face strong pressure, particularly from the seeding has been the main U.S. soybean production area has been good weather, reflected in the disk on the CBOT soybean and even to 7 at the end of decent weather are not subject hype.
Continue producing good if the weather is expected the level of soybean this year's soybean yield is expected to reach 43 bushels / acre, or more, the corresponding level of soybean ending stocks will be increased substantially, which will supply the 2009/2010 U.S. soybean greater pressure. In particular the worldwide need to consider the new year in South America to increase acreage and yield of recovery (severe drought in South America last year, a substantial cut 15 million tons of soybean in Argentina, Brazil cut 4 million tons).
, Of course, due to delayed planting this spring led to late crop maturity, at present, Erie Noi, Indiana, Minnesota and Ohio, these key soybean-producing states in the growth of the slow progress of crop growth cycle may be shortened because of early frost, resulting in late-maturing soybean yield reduction. Therefore, the level of the 2009/2010 soybean yields are still not conclusive, investors will watch the weather.
2, the reservoir is concerned about the national soybean Sell Policy changes
The hands of the Chinese government currently holds 7.25 million tons of soybean, which in itself is enough to change the power balance between supply and demand. As the table shows, three weeks ago, the State Reserve to take quantitative auction week, the number was 50 million tons, a starting price of 3,750 yuan / ton (ie 3700 yuan / ton plus purchasing and storage price of 50 yuan / ton storage etc.), the auction is not yet traded two weeks.
In fact, because the auction price is far higher than the current market price, the market for soybeans will Liupai State Reserve has long been expected, so the auction does not bring to the market bearish. Also, the Government aims to maintain stable soybean prices is clear, also do not want the auction to bring much of the market.
Although Liu Pai is mainly due to price above the market price of storage thrown, but Selling at Proper Price, does not suppress the principles of the market, the state will not later threw down the price savings. August 5 countries will continue to auction temporary reserves soybean, quantity, or 500,000 tons, the price change. Taking into account the State Reserve beans to market price of the smooth way, once the transaction, will continue to support domestic soybean production on the price.
If still can not deal, I think the state should also take other measures in the near future so that part of the flow of temporary reserves bean market, because in September the new beans coming soon, pre-occupied parts of the reservoir is part of the oil mill grain storage and the storage capacity the need to throw bean purchasing and storage reservoir to release the new storage capacity, the subsidies to the oil plant commissioned processing renewed rumors, the specific impact of uncertainties have to wait until after the policy can see the outcome.
Third, market outlook market outlook
Looking forward, from the fundamentals of speaking, because of record high acreage in good weather, the level of U.S. soybean yields are expected to record the case, the 2009/2010 U.S. soybean supply pressure highlights, but the lead in the overall inflation Next, in the capital, driven by the supply of the digest after bad, with the theme of China's imports of factors, speculation, the United States is still expected to move up the beans. I am an expert from China Toys Suppliers, usually analyzes all kind of industries situation, such as wire shelving rack , door shoe organizer.
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