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The biggest surprise from Sunday’s G1 Florida Derby was not that second favorite Dialed In won, but that 68-1 Shackleford hung so tough in the race, losing to the winner by a short neck in the end. Shackleford has earned his ticket to Louisville on May 7, 2011. He will likely be a very nice price on Derby day, surely because many will view his Florida Derby effort as a fluke. This usually happens with huge long shots – the public doesn’t quite believe it when they put in a spectacular effort. The next race out, their odds always drop, but maybe not as much as they ought. Even though he was beaten by Dialed In by only a neck, I will wager that more than twice as much money will be placed on Dialed In on Derby day. His enormous odds were probably much too high considering that he earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure in a mile and an eighth allowance race over the Gulfstream Park strip back in early February. He went off at 17-1 in the Fountain of Youth which featured many of the same horses that came back to run in the Florida Derby and he faltered badly in the race, beaten over 20 lengths. He is a horse whose running style is to be more forwardly placed, which might prove to be a disadvantage in the Kentucky Derby, which typically features at least a couple of speedballs. He went straight to the lead in the Florida Derby and set pretty fast fractions, passing the 6 furlong mark in 110 and 3. Usually horses that run faster than 111 for the first 6 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby fade in the stretch, so his jockey ought to be careful to moderate his speed for the first half of the race. The winner of the Florida Derby, Dialed In, dropped to 5-1 in the KDFW Pool 3 and will surely have his backers in the Kentucky Derby, but Shackleford might be overlooked again and end up a long shot on the tote board, but if I didn’t know anything about either horse and set the odds based on the stretch run of the Florida Derby, I would certainly not put Shackleford too far behind Dialed In, especially since he seems to be on an upward curve of improvement right now. He took a giant leap forward in the Florida Derby, why can’t he do the same for the Kentucky Derby? Shackleford was a $12,500 purchase, and is by Forestry out of an Oatsee mare, is trained by Dale Romans and has expressed interest in going to Louisville – he collected $200,000 in graded earnings for his runner up effort, which should be enough to gain admittance to the Derby.
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