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Here is our list of the top contenders as of April 25th 2011 1.Uncle Mo – Now that Uncle Mo has been exposed as an overhyped imposter following his loss in the Wood Memorial (just kidding!), the Kentucky Derby is up for grabs. Seriously, Uncle Mo is still a formidable talent who deserves the top ranking, even though his aura of invincibility is now gone. 2.The Factor – He makes his next start in the Arkansas Derby. Trainer Bob Baffert has not fully committed to the Run for the Roses, and it will depend on his performance there. If he runs the way he did in the Rebel Stakes, for which he earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure, his third straight triple digit Beyer, expect to see him in the starting gate at Churchill Downs on May 7th. With Premier Pegasus off the Derby trail, The Factor presents a danger to Uncle Mo and may be just as talented, but to win the Kentucky Derby, he has to overcome a race which historically has not been conducive to his speedy frontrunning style. 3.Dialed In – A lot of late money poured in on him in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, pushing him down to 5-1 odds as the clear second choice. As of right now, the public seems to favor him second behind Uncle Mo among this year’s prospects, although that was before Uncle Mo’s Wood “flop”. He received a mediocre 93 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort in the Florida Derby, and hasn’t shown that he has been able to earn more than a 97 in the past. Most serious contenders have usually run a triple digit Beyer at least once. For this reason, we put him behind The Factor who has run three consecutive 100+ Beyers. 4.Soldat – For those fans who were disappointed with his Florida Derby showing, don’t abandon ship just yet. One bad race does not a bad racehorse make. Even Secretariat was beaten in his final Derby prep race. Both Soldat and The Factor are the only three-year-old males this year to have earned Triple Digit Beyers in route races, and given that this year’s crop seems to be on the weak side, we are not going to give up on him yet. 5.Mucho Macho Man – In our opinion, the list starts to thin out a bit with him. He did impress by winning the Risen Star but he did it by a narrow margin and only earned a 94 Beyer. He came back in the Louisiana Derby only to be upset by Pants on Fire, and managed only third place. Contenders 6 through 10 coming tomorrow!!!
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