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The announcement of the release of emergency stock piles by the IEA caused Brent crude prices to go upward at $108 per barrel. US crude oil too reached at $91.97 per barrel. The oil prices came down by more than 6 percent with the announcement of the IEA to release emergency stock piles. This was an unexpected move by the IEA to the markets. This decision by the IEA deeply reflected the growing unease and concerns of the OECD nations about high fuel costs in an already fragile and weak global economy. The $130 per barrel was amended to $100 per barrel by JP Morgan in the third quarter. However, he cautioned that if the release of this oil affected the prices too drastically, the amount of oil supply would be cut down. Low demand by the consuming countries would lead to the same measures. The low oil supply from OPEC due to the turmoil in Libya was the deciding factor for the EIA to release emergency oil stocks, amidst fears for the global economy. Westmore stated that this has not affected the oil industry scenario largely. Marketers realising this are trying to cash in on the weakness. He states that though the oil supply is tight, it is sufficient to meet the consumer demand on a world aggregate level. The IEA plans to release 60 million barrels of government stocks in the global oil market. This would be a 2.5 percent increase in the global oil supply causing oil prices to lower drastically. Traders had been expecting Saudi Arabia to sway OPEC members and agree to an increase in oil supply over a period of time. This was the third time that IEA has used this release mechanism and was completely shocking to the traders. John Vautrain the director at Purvin & Gertz energy consultants stated that politician were under a lot of pressure and would take any measures necessary to lower the oil prices. Vaultrain remarked that there is no telling how long the turmoil in Libya would continue. Releasing surplus oil in such a scenario could be beneficial but can be executed only a few times. He also doubted the scale of impact, such a move would render. Venezuela also doubted any long term impact of such move and accredited it to being a political decision related to the US elections. The release of oil from IEA may account to Saudi Arabia pumping less oil by the end of the year than it originally planned. The capital analyst of Barclays stated in a note that past experiences indicate that the producer governments do not react well to the demands made by the consumer governments. Bullish oil market turns Bearish Minutely watched by markets, the Goldman Sachs forecasts predicted the fall of Brent crude oil prices to around $10 to $12 per barrel. Global concern over high fuel prices, more than expected jobless claims for the US the Federal Reserve’s forecast of low US growth along with the evident decline of Chinese manufacturing had already led to a sharp decline in oil prices. The 3 million barrel per day by IEA in the next 30 days surpasses the oil deficit in the supply due to the situation in Libya. This move is questioning against the generally held view in the industry that the market is now not deficit in oil supply. However, industry analysts agree that the market may tighten later in the year. Light, sweet crude that markets have lost due to the turmoil in Libya will be released from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the form of 30 million barrels. However, it is doubtful if this crude will be able to reach to the European market. Tilak Doshi the chief economist at the Energy Studies Institute of the National University of Singapore stated that this move by the IEA was actually an emergency move in a non-emergency situation. The real motive was to put a limitation on the advantages of the high oil price. The first two releases from the IEA were immediately after the Gulf War and Hurricane Katrina. This third release by the IEA is seen by analysts as a means to control prices in an effort to help the global economic recovery. This move by the IEA should not only be seen as a lone move due to reduced global oil supply but also as an aid boost world economy, amounting to a prominent change in the third quarter dynamics of world oil pricing, stated JP Morgan. The freelancer is an experienced columnist in oil related fields, who frequently writes articles related to oil prices & indexes and crude oil including tips on investment in oil. Please visit oil.com for more details.
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