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Paper pick-up quarter by quarter earnings reversal misunderstanding on the impairment by weqfwer rgetfg





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Paper pick-up quarter by quarter earnings reversal misunderstanding on the impairment by
Article Posted: 08/02/2011
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Paper pick-up quarter by quarter earnings reversal misunderstanding on the impairment


 
Business,Business News,Business Opportunities
Papermaking Industry operating rates rise significantly, improve production and demand is relatively stable. Monthly paper industry 3 and 4, respectively, 745.82 and 7.5666 million tons, a single month were positive growth year on year, compared with 2 monthly increase in two months have been close to 2008 production peak. January-April total production reached 26,743,600 tons, has achieved positive growth over the previous year (2.1%). Overall market demand is relatively stable, but also to business inventories increased. Stable and paper prices have dropped in April, May part of the rise. Main products prices stable and have dropped in April, sales were flat compared with 3 and Cultural paper slightly better than Wrapper . Early May White Cardboard , White Board , Coated paper and other paper kind of price increase for the lower part of the acceptance (price increases in the range of 50-100 yuan / ton), the overall sales volume is relatively stable.

Domestic pulp prices flat Paper Prices. International Pulp's "inventory adjustment" is still continuing, the international pulp prices have rebounded after falling for the domestic pulp prices basically stable, with price increases planned pulp mills abroad; and waste paper at the country of origin Paper Consumption is not busy, recycling reduced the supply tight and demand from China under the action of active and prices showed gradual recovery.

Earnings quarter by quarter rebound Ruqierzhi. Key Paper Company in 2009 Q1 revenue and net profit year on year despite a larger decline (-26% and -81%), but have shown signs of improvement chain (flat and 127%), gross margin and ROE have been bottoming out. 2008 Impairment of assets constitutes a significant impact on net income, in 2009 Q1 the back as "capital gains income" constitutes a major contribution to the performance, despite the elimination of the second quarter of this factor, we believe that with the use of cheap raw materials and sales improve gross margin is expected to continue to rise, a substantial increase of the chain is still OK.

Performance risk is gradually released in April still slightly behind the performance of the market, PB relative valuation than the historical average, there are still 22% discount. As the market for paper-making enterprises in 2009 consistent with the expected lower earnings forecasts, investment strategy our second quarter results suggest the risk of the plate is gradually released in April rose slightly behind the market, paper plates (excess income of -3.1%), while May has basically synchronized with the broader market (excess income of -0.8%).

Present paper plate in 2009 PE and PB, respectively 25 times and 1.8 times (excluding outliers in 2009 PE of 20 times), paper industry, the relative market valuation than the historical average PB still 22% discount ( expanded the previous period).

Trends based on industry-quarter market valuation relative to the good and the discount still can increase the configuration stage. Continue to recommend in 2009 a more determined profit Bo Sun Paper and paper (of which Sun Paper With the implementation of price increases likely-than-expected performance), and the second quarter, the most obvious of China and Thailand to restore profitability and Chenming Paper shares, in addition to concerned about the King Hing Paper (recovery in exports benefit from greater flexibility), Hengfeng Paper (relying on the steady growth can be expected downstream).

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