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Semiconductor Industry leader Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (2330) chairman Morris Chang has published output for this year's global semiconductor growth in optimism. Silicon Products (2325) chairman Lin Wenbo also believe that double-digit growth in semiconductor production can, IC IC packaging and testing industry, too. Looking in the first quarter, Lin Wenbo client is quoted about quarter to cut the forecast range of 5-10% to illustrate the view for the first quarter, and expected future effects of traditional peak seasons will gradually fade, replaced by supply and demand cycle instead.
Outlook for the first quarter, Lin Wenbo no clear prediction, but said in the first quarter of the ASP, and revenue will decline, but gross margins will rise, but at this stage to orders based on customer forecasts in the first quarter over a year about the first 5-10% decline in four seasons, so the company's own view of capacity utilization, wire machine 100% from last year's fourth quarter fell 95%, carrier board some of the decline from 95% to 90%, the logic IC test from 85% to 80%.
The strength of the product applications run, Lin Wenbo said, including consumer Electronic , PC, communications were mild downturn, the highest rate of memory decline in demand.
Lin Wenbo also pointed out that the future effects of traditional peak seasons will gradually fade, replaced instead to supply and demand cycle. Including India, China and other emerging markets, respectively, on May 1st, October 1st is a holiday Sell Season, with Europe and the United States at the end of the Christmas season be staggered, giving rise to complementarity. Apples, for example, often one after Christmas, orders plummeted more than 30% immediately, but now have the support of the Chinese Lunar New Year demand, the impact will be significantly reduced.
Lin Wenbo said he wants to be a crow mouth, at this time to talk a little bad, among the still cautious optimism, especially now that the global economy is in an unstable recovery period of adjustment, there must be considerable attention to the phenomenon of four First, as the country of consumption of the U.S. market is still very slow pace of recovery, unemployment remains high; Second, developing countries because of overheating of funds, fear will lead to the risk of asset bubbles; Third, the leaders credibility to be established; Fourth, relief payments and raising rates to recover the benefits to be seen.
In addition, the wafer production capacity at present very tight, the market began to worry, IC design or IDM works will for the duplication of orders (overbooking) situation. Lin Wenbo response, said the company's current production capacity and orders are still full, from the client's inventory policy, should not overbooking.
However, Lin Wenbo frankly, in the second quarter order visibility is uncertain, unclear to what extent will be good, but still be careful.
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