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Usda releases 10-year economic forecast will hold annual agricultural outlook forum this week by gfgegnnm hhbnmkl





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Usda releases 10-year economic forecast will hold annual agricultural outlook forum this week by
Article Posted: 08/17/2011
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Usda releases 10-year economic forecast will hold annual agricultural outlook forum this week


 
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While noting that the recent global economic slowdown and U.S. recession will have a negative impact on the sector in the near term, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of the Chief Economist expects a stronger agricultural economy will return.

USDA just released its 10-year baseline forecasts through 2018 for the agricultural sector in preparation for its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, which will be held this Thursday and Friday in Arlington, Va.

Some of the factors noted include continued high demand for ethanol, expansion of biodiesel use in Europe and the expectation that countries all over the world will recover from the current economic slowdown. Overall, USDA notes that "although net farm income initially declines from the highs of 2007 and 2008, it remains historically strong and rebounds to near-record levels in the latter part of the projections."

USDA expects that the livestock sector, including dairy, will continue to adjust to the higher feed prices seen in 2007 and 2008, which are expected to remain high into the future. On the supply side, between preliminary data for 2008 and the end of the baseline forecast in 2018, USDA expects U.S. milk production to grow by 17.7 billion pounds (9.3 percent). This growth is due to increases in output per cow of 14.6 percent, which more than offset a 4.5 percent decline in the number of milk cows during the forecast period.

On the demand side, USDA forecasts that the total domestic commercial use of dairy products will increase "somewhat faster than the growth in U.S. population over most of the next decade." Specifically, USDA expects cheese to continue to lead this demand growth due to greater consumption of prepared foods and increased away-from-home eating. On the negative side, USDA expects per capita consumption of fluid milk to continue its long-term decline over the next ten years.

Interesting, USDA expects that commercial exports of U.S. dairy products, which reached record levels in 2007 and 2008, will decline in the coming decade but remain high by historical standards. Dairy product imports are expected to grow slowly, but USDA expects the dairy industry to continue to export greater quantities than the United States imports for at least the next 10 years.

Specifically noting the expected decline in dairy product exports due to the global economic slowdown, USDA expects farm milk prices to fall from the record high levels of 2007 and 2008 during the early years of the baseline. While the baseline forecasts that milk prices will rise from 2012 to 2018, USDA notes that the "increases are less than the general inflation rate largely due to efficiency gains in production."

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