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When China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001, its imports to the United States were approximately $130 billion. In five years, that number ballooned to $328 billion. (Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, via American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI)) Since then, China has continued to grow, and a revised forecast released this month by Global Insight predicts that China will secure the largest share in global manufacturing as early as 2009. Measured in real value-added terms, China is expected to surpass the U.S. as the leading global manufacturer by 2016.
Global Insight's initial projection in 2007 did not have China taking the top spot until 2021, according to conservative think-tank The Heritage Foundation.
"The basic reason is that growth in the U.S. economy has essentially been zero over the last year and will continue to struggle over the next year," says Nariman Behravesh of Global Insight.
U.S. manufacturing growth (measured in real, value-added terms) has remained above 3 percent, but it is expected to stabilize at approximately 2.2 percent by 2015. Measuring in real, value-added terms takes into account resource use, employment and productivity growth. It corresponds to the sector's contribution to overall gross domestic product (GDP) but does not account for inflation or exchange rates.
While the U.S. manufacturing growth has been relatively steady, China has been growing exponentially at a 10 percent to 15 percent compound annual growth rate over the last several years. However, Global Insight expects this growth to calm down to 8 percent by 2015.
Although Global Insight says that China's development is not a cause for concern, many Americans disagree.
Boston Consulting Group and Financial Times took an informal poll of 326 people in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston on their views of U.S. manufacturing versus China. Most respondents were pessimistic about U.S. manufacturing strength, placing the U.S. 20th globally in terms of world manufacturing output for 2007.
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