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The one certainty this week at the British Open? Unpredictability by aear lucy





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The one certainty this week at the British Open? Unpredictability by
Article Posted: 04/24/2012
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The one certainty this week at the British Open? Unpredictability


 
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With no Tiger Woods at the 137th British Open, even the bookies are having a hard time picking a favorite. No. 1 on their list is a guy (Ernie Els) who’s missed four of seven cuts on the PGA Tour this season. So it’s truly anyone’s guess who will win the year’s third major championship. So what kind of course is Royal Birkdale? Will it favor the long hitters or the more accurate drivers of the ball? Oh, and how big a role can we expect good old Mother Nature to play on the west coast of England? ESPN.com’s Bob Harig and Jason Sobel delve into all these topics and more in their weekly email chat, Alternate Shot.

OK, Jason, it’s time for your second British Open. Last year you became enamored with the Arbroath Smokie, which I have a feeling you won’t be able to find anywhere on the west coast of England. Wonder what other delicacy you will be able to find? That said, Royal Birkdale has been home to some great Opens. But this one is going to be different much different because of who will not be there.

Yeah, can’t believe we both qualified again (though I did consider pulling a Kenny Perry and staying stateside instead … OK, maybe not). Perhaps they’ll serve tiger prawns in the city of Southport; that would be the only thing “tiger” around all week. Without Tiger Woods in this week’s field, I’ve gotta say, I’m pretty excited about seeing what’s going to unfold. Will we see an otherwise starstudded leaderboard featuring the likes of Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia and Ernie Els? Another “noname” champion such as Todd Hamilton or Ben Curtis? Or some combination of the two? Whatever happens, it’ll be completely unpredictable.

As unpredictable as the weather? Hear we could see all four seasons on Thursday. That is really one of the interesting things about the British Open, the chance for some strange conditions. It can be cold and rainy and sunny and warm all in the same day. It only adds to the allure. And as you mentioned, this year it should be wide open. Please don’t ask me to pick a winner.

Nah, if you contend that the weather will be more unpredictable, then give me your best Al Roker instead and give me a forecast. I’ll say this much: The more it rains sideways and the wind blows, the greater an advantage it is for the more experienced players. This doesn’t necessarily include only those who play the Euro Tour fulltime, since most of those events aren’t played in Great Britain and Ireland, but could extend to anyone who has been there, done that in his professional career.

And yet, who has more experience than Phil Mickelson? But I don’t fancy his chances much at Royal Birkdale if the weather is poor. The British is his worst major he owns only one top10 finish in his career. It doesn’t make sense, really. You’ve heard all the stuff about ball flight, but Phil can hit any shot he wants. He’s got plenty of shortgame creativity. Stranger things have happened, I suppose.

Well, it’s interesting. According to the folks in charge of such things, the “favorite” entering the week is Els, who has missed the cut in four of seven PGA Tour appearances since winning the Honda Classic in March, though to be fair, he has played well at times, too. Next up is Garcia, who and I’m not sure if you’ve heard this, Bob has never won a major before. Then comes Mickelson, whose struggles overseas we’ve chronicled already. After them? Might as well start throwing darts or picking out of a hat.

No doubt, most any player you choose is going to have some warts. Ernie hasn’t won a major in six years; Phil plays poorly at the British; Sergio has his putting woes. I’ve been saying Lee Westwood all year and he came a few rolls short at the U.S. Open of making it into a playoff. Then again, I said don’t ask me to pick anyone. It’s really too difficult.

OK, fine. I won’t ask. But you’ve got to admit, going into every single major championship we’ve discussed potential contenders as either being those who bomb the ball a country mile or those who keep it in the short stuff, depending on the venue. At less than 7,200 yards, Royal Birkdale will seemingly play into the hands of the latter group. What does it mean? Anytime there’s a greater premium on accuracy, expect the playing field to be leveled, bringing many more players into the mix.

There is no doubt that being a long driver does not appear to be an advantage, although being straight and long would certainly help. That means it sets up beautifully for Kenny Penny … oops, never mind. Well, it does set up for a lot of players, but you still better be playing well, hitting it solid, making putts. The weather forecast changes by the minute, but it’s never supposed to be warm, as we would describe it. And there is a good chance that at least one of the days will be windy or rainy or both.

Enough talk. Let’s get on with it. Oh, and one tip for you, Bob: Don’t call it the British Open over here. You’ll stick out as an ugly American more than if you wore one of Woody Austin’s starsandstripes shirts. It’s the Open Championship. And I can’t wait to see how it unfolds.

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