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Risks fall on un after military withdrawal from afghanistan by ferujkll sdff
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Risks fall on un after military withdrawal from afghanistan |
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The United Nations will be left holding another very dangerous babystate when international troops leave Afghanistan in 2014, manyexperts and diplomats believe. President Barack Obama's warning at the NATO summit in Chicago that"there will be hard days ahead" reinforced the fears of many aboutAfghanistan after the US-led force -- which still numbers 130,000-- has left. The Western alliance has promised billions of dollars in aid forsecurity forces and essential civilian services. The message fromObama and even UN leader Ban Ki-moon has been those in Afghanistannow are not going to abandon the country. But critics say these will not make up for the international voidas the President Hamid Karzai's government battles the Taliban andwarlords for control of the country.
Even some of the Western countries are nervous. "It is notabandoning. But Afghanistan needs support and there are worriesthat the UN will be left carrying the baby -- and a very unstableone -- after 2014," said one senior Western envoy at the UN. Thomas Ruttig, Kabul-based co-director of the Afghanistan AnalystsNetwork, said there are "grave challenges and concerns about theviability of the transition strategy." NATO leaders in Chicago have"talked up" the reality.
"It is actually unfair to hand over the vast remaining problems tothe UN, given that it had been virtually sidelined by NATOgovernments for the past years, and the central political rolegiven to NATO itself." Dipali Mukhopadhyay, a specialist on Afghanistan for PrincetonUniversity's Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination atPrinceton, said the international community must be "cautious"about the expectations placed on the UN. It has only a limited influence on domestic politics, Mukhopadhyaysaid. "In the face of foreign neglect and domestic violentconflict, its ability to build peace moving forward has always beenlimited." She pointed out how the UN has already been a target of attacks inAfghanistan. Jan Kubis, head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan(UNAMA), and a former foreign minister for Slovakia, said it wasnatural for the United Nations to take the lead role. "The UN was created for this kind of situation," he told AFP in aninterview in which he stressed how the United Nations was inAfghanistan well before the September 11, 2001 attacks that sparkedthe US-led invasion.
The UN envoy called the proposed military withdrawal "a positivedevelopment" for Afghanistan and the region as the troops provide"an artificial umbrella". Some experts say Afghanistan, with its huge narcotics industry, agovernment accused of corruption and widespread unemployment, couldeasily veer back onto the path of becoming a failed state. But Kubis said Western troops are not leaving "a country that istotally unstable, that has no chance to continue with a certaindegree of stability." The promised international aid will be crucial however. About $4.1 billion will be needed each year to maintainAfghanistan's army and police over the next decade. The UnitedStates plans to give about $2.3 billion, Germany $191 million,Britain about $110 million and Australia $100 million.
A similar sum will be needed for new schools and hospitals and helpfor the government, Kubis estimated. Japan is organizing a donorconference in July to raise non-military finance. Security and the government's relations with the Taliban will bethe key to future peace. Kubis says he expects NATO and Afghan forces to "create conditionsthat enable Afghanistan to maintain a major degree of security andstability for the overall majority of its population." "I don't want to paint a rosy picture," he said.
"I can speakequally strongly about challenges and problems" including the opiumgrowing and millions of Afghan refugees in neighboring Pakistan andIran. "It doesn't mean that there will not be attacks, including suicideattacks," he said. "It doesn't mean that all of a sudden Afghanistan will turn into avery stable, uneventful country that will fall from the map of theinternational community." Government talks with the Taliban are currently suspended, but notdefinitively canceled and Kubis said they could succeed. With the right international support, Afghanistan "has a fairchance to develop after 2014 in a way we would like to see it,"Kubis said. I am Monitors writer, reports some information about cotton lycra knit , cowboy hat resistol.
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