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Israel sets tough demands for next round of iran talks by ferujkll sdff
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Israel sets tough demands for next round of iran talks |
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During a visit to Israel on Wednesday, Catherine Ashton, the European diplomat leadingnuclear negotiations with Iran, got a reminder of the enormity ofthe challenge she faces. Ashton met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior cabinet members to brief them on plans for the Baghdadtalks scheduled for May 23. Unlike last month's ice-breakermeeting in Istanbul, in Baghdad, the two sides are required tobegin putting cards on the table outlining reciprocal steps eachwould be willing to take to resolve or ease the dangerousinternational standoff over Iran's nuclear program. Netanyahureportedly delivered a blunt warning: "Iran is trying to gaintime through talks with the West, and has no intention of haltingits nuclear program," the Israeli leader told Ashton at theclosed meeting, according to Israeli accounts. Netanyahu warned, according to the AP, that the talks would be considered a success"only if Iran agrees to halt all uranium enrichment, ship itscurrent stockpile of enriched uranium out of the country anddismantle an underground enrichment facility near the city ofQom" and that it commit to a timetable for completingthose steps.
By that benchmark of success, it's arelatively safe bet that the talks will fail. Iran has made itabundantly clear that it has no intention of heeding all of thedemands outlined by Netanyahu. ( MORE: Netanyahu s Election Flip-Flop: Is He Sounding a Warning on Iran? ) While Ashton reportedly assured the Israelis that she and hercolleagues in the P5+1 group (the U.S., France, Britain, Germany,Russia and China) will expect Iran to take verifiable, concreteconfidence-building steps in short order to ensure that thediplomatic process continues, they're unlikely to set the bardefining progress as high as the Israelis have. Although Israel isnot party to the talks, it remains the proverbial elephant in theroom by virtue of its leaders' threat to launch militarystrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities if they conclude thatthe Western strategy of negotiations backed by escalating sanctionsis failing. And Netanyahu, in his meeting with Ashton, appears tohave set a prohibitive benchmark for success, precisely to avoidwhat the Israelis see as the pitfalls of a nuclear compromise.
The Israeli leader is certainly correct that Iran is showing nosign of halting its nuclear program; Iranian leaders continue to insist that they have no intention of suspending, much less abandoningtheir enrichment of uranium, nor do they intend to close the Fordowplant near Qom. But the demand that Iran abandon all itsenrichment of uranium isn't really on the table inAshton's negotiations, whose agreed framework is the Non-Proliferation Treaty . The NPT grants Iran the right to enrich uranium for peacefulpurposes under international scrutiny once it has taken whateversteps are deemed necessary to satisfy the International AtomicEnergy Agency of the peaceful nature of its nuclear work, past andpresent. Although Iran is obliged under current U.N. SecurityCouncil resolutions to suspend enrichment until it has satisfiedall concerns raised by the IAEA, Western powers years ago abandonedthe insistence that Iran halt enrichment as a precondition fortalks.
That's because while Iran has for the past six yearsconsistently refused to heed the U.N. demand, it has latelysignaled a renewed willingness to discuss concrete steps it couldtake to restore international confidence in its intentions bystrengthening verifiable safeguards against weaponization ofnuclear material. ( MORE: Why Israeli Challenges to Netanyahu on Iran May Help Obama sNuclear Diplomacy ) The current talks are aimed at reaching agreement on measures toverifiably limit the scope of Iran's nuclear activities,rather than to halt its nuclear program. The initial focus, as hasbeen widely reported, is on Iran's enrichment of uranium to20% purity, ostensibly for the production of medical isotopes, butwhich considerably reduces the time required for reprocessing toweapons-grade material than the 3.5% enrichment it had previouslyundertaken.
Iran is reportedly prepared to consider a deal underwhich it agrees to halt 20% enrichment, and even possibly ship outits 210-pound stockpile of such material, although it has ruled outclosing the Fordow facility near Qom. But it would expect, inexchange, a significant easing of the Western sanctions targetingits energy exports and cutting it off from the internationalfinancial system. It also wants Western powers accept its right toenrich uranium to 3.5% under NPT, with the possibility of enhancingverifiable safeguards against weaponization by adopting theTreaty's Additional Protocols which allow for more intrusiveinspection. Iran's leaders certainly appear to be preparing their ownpublic for compromise, using the time-honored trick of painting itas victory.
"The regime s propaganda machine is alreadyportraying the Istanbul talks as a triumph for the Islamic Republicand a setback for the West," notes Iran scholar Mehdi Khalaji , at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Indeed,it is setting the stage for a significant compromise by preparingboth the Iranian public and the global community." Anumber of regime figures have in recent weeks proclaimed theIstanbul talks as a breakthrough moment in which the West finallyrecognized Iran's nuclear rights. But, says Khalaji, whileKhamenei may see the need to compromise to avoid confrontation andan economic decline that would threaten his regime, doing sopotentially weakens his authority. "To compromise,"Khalaji writes, Khamenei "must save face; but, to save face,he must not compromise." ( MORE: Netanyahu Calls for Elections, But Will It Change How Israel IsGoverned? ) Iran analysts suggest that Khamenei's personal involvement inoverseeing this round of negotiations raises the stakes fromprevious episodes, in which he was able to distance himself fromthe efforts of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad whom he saw as tooinclined to compromise.
It gives the talks more legitimacy, butalso potentially requires a tougher Iranian stance. So acompromise, perhaps, but Iran will be expected to drive a hard bargain possibly harder than the Western political constellation iscurrently able to accommodate. Even the best-case deal would in all likelihood require that theU.S. and allies abandon their rejection of all enrichment in Iran,something that is reportedly under consideration in the Obama Administration, with some officials recognizing thatlow-level uranium enrichment is a fait accompli in Iran.
That trendmay be enhanced by the ouster of the leading European hardliner on Iran, President Nicolas Sarkozy , in last weekend's French election. But any such dealwould also require convincing Israel that such a compromise is morebeneficial to its security needs than starting a war would be. AndNetanyahu's rhetoric in recent weeks, where he'slikened Iran's nuclear program to the Nazi plans toexterminate Europe's Jews, suggest that he'll lookaskance at any compromise proposal that leaves that program intact. MORE: Israel: Another Former Top Security Aide Criticizes Netanyahu. I am a professional writer from Webcams, which contains a great deal of information about eyeglass cleaning cloth , chinese jade pendant, welcome to visit!
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