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In their first free presidential poll, egyptians face choicebetween secular and islamist path by he ni





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In their first free presidential poll, egyptians face choicebetween secular and islamist path by
Article Posted: 02/11/2013
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In their first free presidential poll, egyptians face choicebetween secular and islamist path


 
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CAIRO – Sixty years after their country came under military dictatorship,Egyptians are for the first time freely electing their president. The voting that begins Wednesday is the greatest prize won by themultitudes who took to the streets to overthrow unpopular HosniMubarak in the string of people-power uprisings that upended theMiddle East in last year's Arab Spring. It is also a moment of truth for this most populous Arab republic,determining whether power stays in the hands of the secular elitetied to the old regime or makes a momentous shift to thelong-suppressed Islamists, with all the implications that such achange may have for relations with the U.S. and the Middle Eastpeace effort. Then again, most of the 50 million eligible voters will probably belooking for more modest returns — chiefly some peace andquiet after more than a year of turmoil, bloody protests, a fallingeconomy and rising crime.

Whoever wins, "I want him to see to the security and safety problemfirst," said Abdel-Rahman Shaker, a 55-year-old private securityguard in Cairo. "If there is security, then we will have a bettereconomy and production. I am looking out for my kids. I am workingnow, but we want a better life for our kids." However, the new chapter to be opened by this election is likely tobe just as tumultuous, facing contentious issues that no one hasdealt with since Mubarak's fall: the economy, the role of Islam,the future of democracy, the relationship with the U.S., Egypt'slongtime backer, and the fate of the historic 1979 peace treatywith Israel.

Egypt mirrors the chaotic trajectories that the Arab Spring revoltshave taken after an initial burst of optimism that long repressedpopulations across the region could replace dictators withdemocracy. The transition in Tunisia, the first nation to rise up in late2010, has been the smoothest, with elections and a start to writinga new constitution. Post-Gadhafi Libya is torn among militias.Yemen's leader, Ali Abdullah Saleh, stepped down earlier this yearbut remains a shadow power. Syria has turned into a bloodbath.Bahrain, a vital U.S.

ally and home to the U.S. Navy in the region,still suffers spasms of sectarian violence. In Egypt itself, the 15 months since Mubarak's ouster have beendefined by deadly street clashes over demands by protesters whosedemands range from minority Christian rights through the expulsionof the Israeli ambassador to the departure from power of thegenerals who have run the country since Mubarak stepped down. Well over 100 people have been killed in these clashes, includingat least nine this month when protesters were attacked by armed mensuspected to be supporters of the military. At the same time, Egyptians are reveling in a new world ofcombative, televised politics, flesh-pressing politicians,presidential debates, rallies and hecklers.

"God and the people will guarantee that the next president willstay the course. If he does something wrong, we will kick him out,"said Al-Sayed Hassan Eid, a 65-year-old worker at a Cairoorphanage. "People are now aware. Before we couldn't speak or openour mouth. There was state security who threatened to arrest us ifwe speak." "The era of fear is now over," he said.

None of the 13 candidates is likely to top 50 percent in votingWednesday and Thursday, so a runoff vote is set for June 16-17. Apresident will be announced June 21, and the generals promise toyield power by July 1. On the secular side, front-runners are Amr Moussa, Mubarak'sforeign minister for 10 years, and Ahmed Shafiq, a former Air Forcecommander and civil aviation minister whom Mubarak made primeminister during his last days in power. On the Islamist side are Mohammed Morsi for the fundamentalistMuslim Brotherhood, the country's strongest political movement,which was banned under Mubarak, and Abdel-Moneim Abolfotoh, amoderate Islamist who broke with the Brotherhood and has emerged asa crossover candidate, with appeal among liberals and their polaropposites, the ultraconservative Islamists known as Salafis. That lineup is already an explosive mix.

The secular leaders of therevolution fear either Moussa or Shafiq would perpetuate elementsof the old, corrupt police state they served. Some Islamiststhreaten a second uprising. "Voting for these people means joining them in sin," a Brotherhoodcleric, Munir Gomaa, said in a religious edict. "It is notpermitted by Islamic law ... to bring back these faces that therevolution sought to remove." The latest polls show Moussa and Shafiq in the lead, followed byAbolfotoh and then Morsi, with up to half the voters undecided.

Butpolling, highly restricted under Mubarak, is new to Egypt and itsreliability is unknown. Many doubt Morsi could be lagging so far behind, given theBrotherhood's proven electoral strength; in the post-Mubarakparliamentary election, the first in which the Muslim Brotherhoodwas allowed to run openly, it captured nearly half the seats. Any result brings its own tensions. A Morsi victory would mean theBrotherhood, holding the presidency and dominating Parliament,could set about Islamizing Egypt's government. But it might actwith its customary pragmatism to avoid angering liberals and, moreimportant, the military and security forces.

A Shafiq or Moussa victory would likely spell confrontation betweenthe president and the legislature. The Brotherhood insists that asthe biggest faction, it gets to name a prime minister and form agovernment. But the interim constitution, unless it is rewritten,gives that right solidly to the president. For most of his rule, Mubarak — like his predecessors —ran unopposed in yes-or-no referendums. Rampant fraud guaranteedruling party victories in parliamentary elections.

Even when, in2005, Mubarak let challengers oppose him in elections, he ended upnot only trouncing his liberal rival but jailing him. Now he is 84, ailing and on trial on charges of complicity in thekilling of hundreds of protesters during the 18-day uprising. Butthe downside of his departure is that Egyptian governance has beenon hold for 15 months, with a series of military-appointed interimgovernments doing little to tackle the country's problems. Burst sewers go unrepaired, and unenforced laws allow illegalbuilding to gobble up precious farmland.

Crime has spiraled becausepolice forces have largely left the streets, bruised and resentfulafter being beaten by protesters during the anti-Mubarak uprising. Writing a new constitution has not begun, and the panel due todraft it has not even been formed. The new system's shape hashardly been discussed — which powers will go to parliament,which to the president, how civil rights will be enshrined. Almost nothing has been done on the major goal of the revolution:dismantling the Mubarak system that strangled political life. Thesecurity forces and domestic spy agencies that were the bedrock ofthe police state have not been reformed.

Government ministries andagencies that for three decades operated largely through patronageand corruption remain unreformed. The military, through retiredgenerals, pervades top state positions. "These challenges will definitely not be resolved by the electionor anytime soon thereafter," said Egypt expert Denis Sullivan ofNortheastern University, Illinois. "The election is a crucial stepthrough the fire of Egypt's ongoing, and still lengthy, transitiontoward a more participatory political system." ___ Associated Press correspondent Sarah El Deeb contributed to thisreport.

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