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Insight: Israel gas finds launch navy into troubled waters By Dan Williams Posted 2012/05/29 at 3:03 am EDT TEL AVIV, May 29, 2012 (Reuters) — When Israeli economists contemplate their country's untappednatural gas finds far out in the Mediterranean, they dream ofenergy independence and lucrative export deals. Those charged with Israel's defense, however, worry that the navy -small and long a middling priority in budgets - may be hard put toprotect the multinational drilling platforms and rigs out at sea. "We will do our best, but without a major boost to ourcapabilities, our best will not be enough," a senior militaryplanner said in one of a series of Reuters interviews with Israelidecision-makers on the subject. That all spoke on condition of anonymity indicates concern thatsuch doubts over security might scare off investors and, perhaps,even encourage sea-borne attacks by Hezbollah, the Iranian-backedLebanese guerrilla movement hostile to Israel and to itsexploration of gas fields also claimed by Beirut. There are internal political considerations, too. With Middle Eastinstability spiraling, Israel's Finance Ministry is poring over anunwieldy plan for fiscal cuts combined with new spending onnational security. The navy is lobbying for cash but is loath tochallenge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly. Maps and other dry facts speak amply. The huge gas fields centered 130 km (80 miles) from the port ofHaifa in northern Israel, along with Yam Thetis, the existinggas-production rig just off Ashkelon in the south, make for a bodyof water covering 23,000 square km (9,000 square miles) - more thanIsrael's territory on land. Guerrilla raids from the north appear the main threat, withPalestinian Hamas militants penned in Gaza to the south andrumbling discontent from the Lebanese government over Israel'sdrawing of a maritime border unlikely to take a military turn. Providing rapid response in an emergency would strain the Israelifleet of three corvettes - which have a crew of about 70 and cancarry helicopters - 10 other missile boats and fast patrol vessels,and three diesel submarines, not least given their existing rolesof enforcing the Gaza Strip blockade and the occasional foraythrough the Suez Canal to the Red Sea. "You would need to have at least two missile boats in the vicinityof the rigs at all time," said a senior officer. Another declined to give a specific number, saying only the navyrequired "several" new vessels to meet future missions. TALL ORDER That would mean major expansion of the fleet - a tall order, notleast as Israel bought another submarine for $335 million in March. Visiting Israeli joint defense headquarters in Tel Aviv reveals thenavy's junior status, its cramped command centre overshadowed bythe marbled tower of the well-funded air force. The navy also faces skepticism from an Israeli cabinet stiff withformer army generals and a finance minister, Yuval Steinitz, who isa civilian expert on maritime security. In the spirit of what Israelis mordantly call their "ad-hocracy",an unwillingness to spend on things that seem less pressing, thegovernment may not agree with naval commanders about the urgency ofprotecting gas fields which are years away from being fullyexploited and operational. One of the handful of gas development projects under way, Tamar,has finished a well 70 km (45 miles) from Haifa. An underwaterpipeline will run from there to a production rig that will beerected next to Yam Thetis, 25 km (15 miles) from Israel's southerncoast, by July 2013. Another project, Leviathan, is 130 km (80 miles) off Haifa - aremoteness from shore that would itself appear to provideprotection from guerrilla raids - and is not expected to producegas before 2017. A number of firms hope to find undersea oilreserves, as well as the gas. Robin Mills, head of consulting at Manaar Energy in Dubai,predicted an eventual increase in such activity off Israel andCyprus, with several new exploration wells supported by supplyships and pipe-laying vessels. "It won't be like the North Sea, but not a negligible presenceeither," Mills said. "I wouldn't say the security discussion ispremature." Asked about prospects for protecting the gas fields, a seniorFinance Ministry official said only: "This is one among the IsraelDefence Forces' various missions. We are confident that the IDFwill successfully rise to it." MISSILES, DIVERS, DRONES Like its foreign counterparts, Israel's navy prides itself on aspit-and-polish proficiency, especially in carrying out missions ofstrategic importance. The officers who spoke to Reuters chafed atthe idea that, in a fix, they might be forced to call on NATOpowers which sail the Mediterranean, such as the United States. The Israeli navy has fended off a variety of threats over thedecades, including at long range. Last year it captured anti-shipmissiles which Israel said were destined for Palestinian guerrillasin the Gaza Strip. From there, the weapons could potentially havebeen used to blow up Yam Thetis. Citing intelligence assessments, the navy fears Hezbollahguerrillas in boats could fire similar missiles against Israelitargets in the northern gas fields. Other scenarios includeremote-controlled flying bombs crashing into rigs, or miniaturesubmarines striking from below. A separate possibility is of gunmenapproaching the platforms in civilian vessels or with divers' gear,then storming aboard to kill or capture the crews. "We designated these kinds of attack as having a 'reasonablelikelihood' of occurring," one Israeli officer said. Anthony Skinner, Middle East analyst at London political riskconsultancy Maplecroft, voiced doubt about the imminence of anysuch incident. He argued Hezbollah has a role as a reserve reprisalarm of its patron Iran, should the latter's controversial nuclearfacilities be bombed by the Israelis. "Were Hezbollah to target gas platform and production rigs, such anattack would likely provoke a robust response from Israeli forces,which may in turn precipitate a broader conflict. One of Iran's keycards against Israel would be removed from the table," Skinnersaid. But merely menacing the energy assets could have value in the eyesof Hezbollah and its allies: "It is altogether conceivable thatHezbollah will seek to deter or frustrate Israeli extraction. Irantoo does not want Israel to be able to exploit massive oil and gaswealth in the Mediterranean," Skinner said. MUTUAL DETERRENCE? Though outgunned by Israel, Hezbollah guerrillas fought its army toa standstill in a border war in 2006 and have since maintained atense standoff while making clear they are honing their militarycapabilities for any new conflict. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, indicated in aspeech last July that any attack on Israeli offshore gas facilitieswould be in retaliation for an attack on Lebanon. Israel's navy says that in addition to enhancing its own fleet itexpects stepped-up air force patrols of the gas fields andespionage further abroad. "If there is a Hezbollah guy training in South America to attack agas platform, we want to know about it," an Israeli officer said,speaking hypothetically. There is hope for stop-gap measures such as unmanned,machinegun-equipped naval patrol boats that can travel longdistances and remotely challenge suspect vessels. Navy officersalso hint at the development of electronic counter-measures thatwould allow gas rigs to block incoming guided missiles. "The IDF knows how to provide a response for all of Israel'smilitary needs," said Ohad Marani, a former Finance Ministrydirector-general and now CEO of ILD Energy, which plans to begindrilling the first of two new offshore wells in June. Texas-based Noble Energy, the main foreign company developing thegas fields with Israel and its maritime neighbor Cyprus, declinedto discuss security measures for the platforms. One of the Israeli officers said the rigs had private guards whocoordinate closely with the navy. But they have not yet heldsufficient joint emergency drills, the officer said, citingreluctance to disrupt work that costs around $1 million a day. "Noble was the only company crazy enough to work with us," theofficer said. "We don't want to be inconsiderate." That leaves the hope that Hezbollah will shrink from thegeographical, and geopolitical, hurdles of strikes at sea. "The targets are so distant, and if they miss, then they hit thewater and get no effect whatsoever," an Israeli officer said,channeling Hezbollah thinking. "And if they do get the target, thenthey hurt Americans and Filipino crewmen rather than just Jews. Somaybe they'll think it's not worth it." (Additional reporting by Ari Rabinovitch; Editing by Giles Elgood). The e-commerce company in China offers quality products such as China Surface-active Agents , Phosphonium Salts Manufacturer, and more. For more , please visit Wheat Protein Gluten today!
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