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Patent trawler aims to predict hot technologies - PP Nonwoven Fabric - Medical Non Woven Fabric Man by he ni
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Patent trawler aims to predict hot technologies - PP Nonwoven Fabric - Medical Non Woven Fabric Man by HE NI
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| Article Posted: 05/29/2013 |
| Article Views: 71 |
| Articles Written: 1145 - MORE ARTICLES FROM THIS AUTHOR |
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Patent trawler aims to predict hot technologies - PP Nonwoven Fabric - Medical Non Woven Fabric Man |
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Business,Business News,Business Opportunities
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By data-mining the US patent pool, a new tool could help futuristspredict emerging technologies HORIZON scanning. Strategic prediction. Futurism. Whatever you callit, companies need to anticipate the next hot technologies ahead oftime or they will be beaten to the punch by more agile competitors.But what's the best way to do it? Usually the answer is to pore over societal, environmental,technological and economic trends and come up with a forecast ofwhich technologies will be in high demand.
Now futurists may begetting a new tool that automatically helps them predict emergingtechnologies, thanks to an innovative data-mining technique. Developed by P ter rdi at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences inBudapest and colleagues, it works by analysing the frequency withwhich patents are cited by other patents. Each new filing isrequired to cite previous inventions, or prior art, that the newidea builds upon. Plotting how the frequency of these citations changes over timeshows that patents can be grouped into related clusters.
These clusters evolve , sometimes branching into new disciplines, sometimes merging withone another. rdi's team have written software that not only charts this evolution, but also hits thefast-forward button on the rate and type of citations to helppredict whether existing technological fields can combine ordiverge to create new areas of innovation. "Patent citation data seems to be a gold mine of new insights intothe development of technologies, since it represents the innovationprocess," says rdi. They tested their algorithm on old datafrom the US Patent and Trademark Office's "agriculture, textilesand food" category of inventions and found that it predicted theemergence of a field recently created to cover nonwoven textiles -PP Nonwoven Fabric whose fibres are squeezed or forced together, often usingsolvents as bonding agents.
Using old data to predict the new has its risks, though. Had theteam's method existed during the internet boom of the 1990s, forexample, it might have predicted that a hot topic among filings atthe time - business method patents - indicated an emerging field oftechnology. Not so. The influx of patents was shortlived,reflecting the fact that companies were figuring out how to dobusiness online - with ideas too similar to prior offline methods,or just plain obvious. "Our methodology provides just one way to extract information fromthis patent data mine," says rdi.
"We hope to convincecompanies to use our methods to solve their specific problems." Inmaking innovation slightly more predictable, they hope to take someof the risk out of futurism. They will have their work cut out, says Sheryl Connelly, futuristat the Ford Motor Company in Dearborn, Michigan. Because companiesusing the system would be seeking clusters of new invention types,she says, they would be running with the pack, rather than going italone with standout, exclusive innovations. Connelly concedes that the technique may have a place in theforecaster's armoury.
"It sounds like a great antenna for what ishappening in the marketplace, and the kind of discussions peopleare having," she says. "But I would caution anyone from everrelying on a single source like patents, even if it seems a goodpredictor of what's on the horizon.".
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