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INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY ARIZONIA REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE ARMLS® STAT - June 6, 2013 SALES Month over Month May sales increased 7.8% to 9,436, following the steady, upward sales trend line begun in January. Sales above 9,000 were last seen 11 months ago in June 2012 (9,129). SALES Year over Year Sales were up 11.8% over the same metric in 2012. May’s figure (9,436) is the highest since June 2011 when sales hit a record 11,125, the highest sales figure of the decade. NEW INVENTORY New inventory fell slightly by 0.3% to 9,842. May’s figure is 8% above the 12-month average of 9,114. TOTAL INVENTORY Total inventory dropped by 1.7% in May to land at 19,734. This metric has fallen 7 out of the last 12 months, averaging -0.14% per month over the last 12 months. This is the first time total inventory has slipped below 20,000 since June 2012 ACTIVES and UCBs The Under Contract-Backups (UCBs) makeup of Active listings declined slightly (-1%) in May to 4,070, or 21% of active inventory. The UCB component of Actives has been declining, and over the last 12 months has fallen from a high of 35% to the current 21%. MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) MSI declined for the fourth month in a row to 2.09 months. MSIs below four months are regarded as Sellers’ markets. Market wide MSI is tracked by STAT as a barometer of overall market health. It should never be used to estimate MSI in smaller market niches, which have their own unique supply and demand balance. NEW LIST PRICES The median new list price increased 2.5% in May to $199,900, increasing 8 out of the last 12 months. Median list price in the $199,000-$200,000 range was last seen in the June-July time frame in 2008. Average new list price decreased slightly (-0.6%) to $281,700. SALE PRICES Both sales price metrics rose in May, continuing the upward trend lines that started when both the median and average sales prices hit bottom in May 2011 and August 2011, respectively. May’s median sales price rose 1.7% to $175,000, surpassing last year’s May metric by 20.7%. The average sales price increased 4.4% to $237,800, also beating last year’s average sales price metric by 25.7%. THE ARMLS PENDING PRICE INDEX™ The ARMLS PENDING PRICE INDEX is a metric unique to ARMLS which uses pending properties in- side the MLS system to forecast median and average sales prices 30 days into the future. Last month PPI predicted the median sales price for May to be $173,000, underestimating the actual of $175,000 by 1.16%. It predicted the May average sales price at $235,100, missing the actual of $237,800 by 1.15%. PPI predicts the June median sales price to increase to $180,000, and the average sales price to rise to $238,600, continuing the upward trend lines of both metrics. PPI SUPPLEMENT The PPI Supplement focuses on the makeup of newly pended properties added to the pending pool each month over a rolling four months. For some time a decrease in the percentage of pendings from $150,000 and below, and an in- crease in the ranges above, have been typical. This reflects the decline in available inventory in the lower, more afford- able ranges, and a shift to properties in the next higher ranges. More revealing is a comparison of the monthly pending percentages to those a year ago. The percentage of pending properties in the $150,000 and below ranges fell 17.20% from a year ago. However, the percentage of pending properties in May 2013 in the $150,001 to $300,000 ranges rose 9.89%. In addition, May’s pending properties in the $300,001 to $500,000 ranges increased 5.6%%. FORECLOSURES PENDING Foreclosures pending followed its declining trend line again in May to 8,826, falling 6.35% from last month. Foreclosures pending have declined steadily since the all-time high of 50,568 in November of 2009. The last time foreclosures pending in the mid-8,000 range were seen was in September 2007, on its upward climb to the decade high. DISTRESSED SALES Distressed sales of 2,075 fell again as a percentage of total sales to 22%, having fallen from the all-time high of 70.7% in February 2011. Closed lender owned sales of 918 accounted for 9.7% of the total sales, while short sales of 2,075 accounted for the remaining 12.3%. The decline in influence of distressed properties on pricing is seen as positive, and moves the Valley market into more normal territory. AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) Average days on market declined by 4 days in May to 66. Market wide DOM is tracked by STAT as a barometer of overall market health and should never be used to estimate DOM in smaller market niches. COMMENTARY The Valley’s recovery advanced in May at the steady pace typical of the previous six months. Notably, sales activity increased 7.8% and three of the four pricing metrics showed gains: median list price +2.5%, median sales price +1.7% and average sales price +4.4%. Distressed sales as a percent- age of total sales declined to 22%. Both DOM and MSI fell lower, continuing their upward pressure on pricing. Disappointing was further decline in total inventory which has fluctuated in the range between 19,734 and 23,232 for the past 12 months. The chatter regarding inventory shortage remains problematic. Total inventory is very close to inventory levels from last May, but the DOM is down 19 days from a year ago, and prices are rising. In 2004, regarded by many as the last normal Valley market, the average total monthly inventory was 17,485. So maybe complaints about lower inventory need to be tempered, because the current inventory levels are comparable to a normal market. Perhaps the problem is not lack of inventory, but sparse inventory in the outrageously affordable ranges to which many Buyers now feel entitled. But as the PPI Supplement indicates, ample supply in those affordable ranges is going away. The pressure that the sparse inventory in the low ranges exerts is all around good for pricing. There is enough inventory, just not in the price ranges a lot of Buyers want. After the last five years of scratching for economic good news like a blind chicken pecking for seed, we now have many positive signs and indicators to buoy not only Subscriber Confidence but overall Consumer Confidence, which climbed to its highest level in five years. In April unemployment fell lower in 40 states. The Labor Department reports that employment rates declined in 344 of the 372 largest metro areas.4 Specifically, the Bureau of Labor statistics predicts preliminarily 6.6% unemployment for Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale.5 If the Great Recession has taught us anything, it’s that good news, as well as bad news, in other places in the U.S., affects our own recovery, either directly or indirectly. As Congress dukes it out over taxes, stimulus and belt tightening, the Congressional Budget office forecasted a continued decline in the federal budget deficit. Their projections estimate a $642 billion budget deficit for 2013, down $200 billion from its February estimate and the smallest annual short- fall since 2008. When President Obama came into office, he faced a deficit of $1 trillion. About half of the reduction comes from new tax revenues and expiration of certain deductions. In addition, the strengthening economy brings new revenue from wages and capital gains.6 While many economists cite the sequester as a drag on the economy, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisers, believes that rising home prices and appreciation in the stock market should offset at least a third of the fiscal tightening.7 If he’s right, that leaves only two thirds of the sequester to fret over. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the drop in personal income of $5.6 billion in April was caused by declines in farm income and sequester-driven cuts in government. Further, personal consumption fell $20.5 billion. Mortgage rates are still very affordable and that bodes well. Freddie Mac reports the average 30 year rate at 3.59%, and 2.77% for 15 year.9 Resale inventory remains low, but new homes may fill in that gap. While new homes sales fell in April to 860, compared to the 1,020 in March, the gap can be explained by the fact that fewer new homes were complete and ready for close. Last month 1,290 single family permits were issued, up from 1,258 in March. Gilbert, Queen Creek, the South- west Valley adjacent to Interstate 10 and Vistancia in the Northwest Valley, as well as areas close to Loop 303 are among the highest centers for new home growth. STAT reports much to crow about in the numbers and the economy, even amidst the unknowns associated with the sequester. Hopes that Congress would work out a more palatable and common sense approach to belt-tightening are fading. It feels a lot like driving a train full speed ahead with the breaks on. STAT though, remains optimistic.
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