Divided public: climate survey shows skepticism and alarm risingover the past decade

In 2002, 20 percent of Americans associatedglobal warming with melting ice, the most salient category, but in2010 this accounted for just over 10 percent of associations.Meanwhile, "alarmist" images of disaster (e.g., "endof everything") increased from 2002 to 2008, then decreasedslightly in 2010. Four nationally representative surveys formed the basis of thestudy and were completed in 2003, 2007, 2008, and 2010. Using aform of free association, respondents were asked to provide thefirst thought or image that came to mind when they heard the term"global warming" (e.g., "polar bears") and anaffective rating (e.g., +3 = a very good thing and -3 = a very badthing). The associations were then analyzed to identify the ninemost common themes: ice melt, heat, nature, ozone, alarmist,flood/sea level, climate change, weather and naysayers.

The authors also found that many Americans perceive climate changeas distant and abstract and "outside of most people's directexperience." The authors conclude that analyzing affectiveimagery "provides a powerful tool to measure, track, andexplain shifting public perceptions of risk over time." The issue of climate change's abstractness was studied byresearchers Dr. Alexa Spence, of The University of Nottingham,U.K., and colleagues Dr. Wouter Poortinga and Professor NickPidgeon, both of Cardiff University, U.K., in their paper,"The Psychological Distance of Climate Change," whichalso appears in the June issue of Risk Analysis. To analyze publicperceptions of climate change risk, the researchers focused on"psychological distance" in promoting action and thesignificance of uncertainty as a justification for inaction. Surveydata for the study were collected using computer assisted personalinterviews of a nationally representative sample of 1,822 of theUnited Kingdom's population between January and March 2010.

Tounderstand the psychological dimensions of distance in relation toclimate change, the researchers assessed geographical, social, andtemporal (or time-related) distance, as well as uncertainty. Geographically, 52.6 percent of survey respondents agreed with thestatement that climate change would mostly affect their localareas, compared with 30 percent who disagreed. Socially, 44.6percent agreed that climate change would impact people likethemselves, compared with 32.3 percent who disagreed. Temporally,41 percent indicated that Britain is feeling already the effects ofclimate change, compared with less than 15 percent who indicated itwould never occur or would be felt beyond the next 100 years.Regarding uncertainty, 47 percent of respondents said that climatechange is caused by a combination of human activity and naturalprocesses, 31 percent said it is caused mostly or entirely by humanactivity, and 18 percent said it has mostly or entirely naturalcauses.

The authors note that "generally lower psychological distancewas associated with higher concern about climate change," andthus risk communications should focus on making the problempsychologically closer. However, they add, although personal, localand "closer considerations of climate change" areimportant in promoting concern, to promote action it may beimportant to highlight the global impacts of climate change.Together, these two papers shed light on the basis of attitudestoward climate change in the United States and the U.K. at a timeof growing scientific concern and political debate over the issue.

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