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A spasm of violence: how lebanon is threatened by syria's rebellion - China Deutz Industrial Engine by guo ping





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A spasm of violence: how lebanon is threatened by syria's rebellion - China Deutz Industrial Engine by
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A spasm of violence: how lebanon is threatened by syria's rebellion - China Deutz Industrial Engine


 
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An uneasy, fragile calm returned to the Lebanese capital Beirut andthe northern city of Tripoli on Monday, a day after the worstclashes between pro- and anti-Syrian Lebanese factions since 2008.The violence erupted after the killing of a prominent anti-SyrianSunni cleric, Sheikh Ahmad Abdel Wahed, and an associate. The pairwere shot dead by soldiers in the northern Lebanese region of Akkarafter their convoy allegedly failed to stop at a checkpoint. Andwhile the politics involved are local and sometimes impenetrable,the consequences are much broader. They illustrate how this tinycountry, wedged between Israel and Syria, continues to be captiveto its geography.

The sheikh's death was just the latest incident to tap into thedeeply seated frustrations of the largely anti-Syrian LebaneseSunni community, and Sunni reaction to the killings was immediateand predictable. Protests erupted and roads, initially in the northbut then later in other parts of the country, were closed withburning tires. In an impoverished Sunni section of Beirut heavymachine guns and rocket-propelled grenades were used in overnightclashes. (PHOTOS: The Victims of Assad: Photographs by Peter Hapak) Lebanon's vibrant, often violent domestic politics have been shapedby events taking place in its larger neighbors, and it has been astage for their proxy wars, courtesy of sectarian leaders who haveoften been willing pawns to foreign meddling.

It is not surprisingthat elements of Syria's 15-month conflict have come to Lebanon.But it is troubling nonetheless. Lebanon has been divided along pro- and anti-Syrian lines since atleast 2005, when Sunni leader and former premier Rafik Hariri wasassassinated in a blast his supporters blamed on Syria and itslocal allies. The killing and the domestic and internationaloutrage it provoked propelled Damascus to withdraw its militaryfrom Lebanon that year, ending a 29-year presence. In the yearssince, the gulf between the two Lebanese camps has widened.

Like somany things here, it is sharply sectarian. On one side are theShi'ite parties of Hizballah and Amal, and their Christian allieswho support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. On the other is ananti-Assad coalition of Sunnis, Druze and rival Christians. The stage has long been set for a conflagration. There was a briefflare-up in May 2008, when Hizballah, enraged by a decision by theanti-Syrian government of the day to uproot its independentmilitary communications network, overran parts of the Lebanesecapital in a potent display of military prowess that left itsoverpowered Sunni rivals seething and humiliated.

For many Sunnis,the scars of 2008 are still raw. A little over a week ago, politics once again returned to thestreets, when running gunbattles erupted in parts of Tripolibetween residents of the conservative anti-Syrian Salafineighborhood of Bab al-Tebbane, and the adjacent pro-Syrian Alawiteneighborhood of Jabal Mohsen. (Fittingly, the street dividing themis called Syria Street.) Such local enmities and conflicts areoften unalarming in a national sense, especially since there haveoften been deadly clashes between the two Tripoli neighborhoods.But this time, things began to add up. (MORE: The Syria Crisis: Is al-Qaeda Intervening in the Conflict?) The trigger for the violence was the arrest of a little-known SunniIslamist called Shadi Mawlawi. Mawlawi, who was not a wanted man,was at a social services center run by a local anti-Syrianpolitician, having been lured there by an element of the securityforces perceived as sympathetic to Hizballah.

He has now beencharged with belonging to a terrorist organization, although hissupporters say he was nabbed because he helps Syrian refugeesfleeing to Lebanon. Mawlawi's arrest brought the Sunni community toa near tipping point. It was the latest in a list of grievances andperceived humiliations borne by the group, specifically itsnorthern Salafists. The charge of belonging to a terroristorganization was particularly bitter, given that the community isstill protesting the five-year detention of some Islamists who havebeen held without charge on suspicion of belonging to extremistgroups. There are economic reasons for the anger as well.

NorthernLebanon in general, and Tripoli in particular, are impoverished,long-neglected areas that have benefited little from economicdevelopment in the rest of the country. The tipping point came withthe sheikh's death on Sunday, when many Sunnis around the countrytook up arms in protest. Shocked by the rapid deterioration of the security situation in thepast few weeks, some Lebanese fear a replay of the chaos of theearly 1970s that led to the civil war. Back then, the country wassimilarly polarized over one of its neighbors. It was split overthe issue of Palestine, or more specifically, the influx ofguerrilla groups expelled from Jordan during the bloody 1970s BlackSeptember crackdown.

Leftist, pan-Arab, mainly Muslim parties inLebanon supported the Palestinian guerrillas in their fight againstIsrael. Right-wing, mainly Christian nationalists did not. Theensuing conflicts contributed to a civil war that took 15 years toend. There's another worrying similarity. For the first time in a longtime, the neutrality of the Lebanese army has been questioned.

Themilitary, considered one of the few state institutions which is atleast superficially above the sectarian fray, was accused by someSalafists of siding with the Alawites during the fighting betweenBab al-Tebbane and Jabal Mohsen. That view was cemented by thedeath of Sheikh Abdel Wahed. It's a serious charge, given that theinstitution's unity depends on its neutrality. (PHOTOS: Escape from Syria: Photographs by William Daniels) The army was quick to offer its condolences for the "regrettable"incident and promised a thorough investigation. Still, a group ofclerics from Akkar ominously threatened to form a "Free LebaneseArmy," a sentiment recalling the dark days of the civil war whenthe army split along sectarian lines.

Some army units withdrew fromAkkar on Sunday following the shooting, in a bid to ease tensions. Prominent anti-Syrians like Sunni leader Saad Hariri, son of theslain former premier, warned against a confrontation between thearmy and the people. "We do not blame the Lebanese army as a wholefor the murder, because the army is the national militaryinstitution by which the people of Akkar have always stood," hesaid in a statement. "But it is clear that some people involved inthis murder want to use the institution and its symbol to importthe crisis of the Syrian regime with its people and the wholeworld, to Lebanon, in a desperate attempt to save it from itsunavoidable end." Religious and political leaders from across the political dividehave urged calm. Still, questions remain about when and why thesoldiers opened fire.

Did the sheikh's convoy fail to stop, or asone of his driver's said, was it turning around after the sheikhhad been humiliated by an officer? The incident has increased pressure on Prime Minister Najib Mikati,a Sunni from Tripoli, who must tread a fine line between hisgovernment (which is dominated by Hizballah and its allies) and hishometown constituency. The government's policy of "dissociation"from the Syrian crisis is looking increasingly untenable. Itsurvived Syrian infringements of Lebanese sovereignty — thegovernment barely blinked during a handful of incursions by Syrianforces and incidents of gunfire into Lebanese territory despite thefact that several Lebanese were killed — but this may be moredifficult to contain. (MORE: Damascus Blasts: Are Terrorists the Wild Card in Syria'sPower Struggle?) It's a fragile, easily combustible situation, made more so by theinflux of Syrian refugees.

The figure is at least 24,000 — andclimbing. The first waves of mainly Sunni Syrians crossed into thenorthern Lebanese, largely Sunni and fiercely anti-Syrian region ofWadi Khaled. Many had blood ties to the region, and were housed inrelatives' homes, in schools and in mosques. In recent months, alarge number of Syrian refugees have entered the Bekaa, which ismore politically and religiously diverse.

Parts of it, like thearea around Baalbek-Hermel, are Hizballah strongholds. There areacute housing shortages for refugees in the region, the UNHCR says,but neither the UN body nor other NGOs want to house Syrians intents, for humanitarian reasons. Hizballah, too, does not want Lebanon to establish refugee campslike those in Turkey, but theirs is a very different calculation:"We cannot accept refugee camps for Syrians in Lebanon because anycamp... will become a military pocket that will be used as alaunchpad against Syria and then against Lebanon," Hizballah'sdeputy secretary-general Naim Qassem said in March, according tothe Beirut-based Daily Star . In other words, Hizballah does not want a situation akin to thatin the early 1970s, when Palestinian guerrilla groups set up bases(not to be confused with Palestinian refugee camps) in southernLebanon and parts of the Bekaa to launch attacks against Israelfrom Lebanon.

Still, some aid workers say that the establishment ofcamps is inevitable, given the rising number of refugees. The issueis already a domestic political football, and risks furtherenflaming existing tensions. As night fell Monday, there were reports of new roads being closedwith burning tires even as others were reopened. Nevertheless, theLebanese are used to volatility. They are remarkably adept atdusting off their weapons at the slightest provocation, racing tothe brink of what seems like a new civil conflict, only to pullaway from it just as suddenly.

The next few days will determine ifrecent events are just another spasm of violence, or somethingmore. MORE: In Syria, Lebanon's Most Wanted Sunni Terrorist Blows HimselfUp.

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