By Hemendra Jha
October 31, 2013 |
Post Diwali, the battle for Delhi – 2013 will intensify. Congress and BJP will narrow down on the list of candidates selected to contest the Assembly Elections respectively. AAP lead by Arvind Kejriwal has already finalized 65 candidates out of the 70 constituencies it intends to contest.
BJP has finalized the name of Dr. Harsh Vardhan as their CM candidate. This choice over Mr. Vijay Goel appears obvious as this elevation for the CM post for Dr. Harsh Vardhan will help the party to counter anti-corruption and anti-incumbency campaign of AAP in the Capital. A win in Delhi will not only be important for Congress and BJP but also for AAP for symbolic reasons. While BJP and Congress will portray it with Lok Sabha elections in 2014, for AAP it will be its way to grow to become a National party.
Most of the opinion polls have projected a hung assembly for Delhi. BJP is likely to get 26-29 seats, Congress tally might be 25-26 seats while AAP is eying for 12-14 seats. 1-3 seats might go to others. It’s surprising why BSP lead by Mayawati has not jumped in so far unlike what they did in 2008. Jyoti Basu is the only Chief Minister so far who has won a record number of four consecutive terms in WB assembly elections in India. If Sheila Dixit leads congress to a fourth term victory in Delhi, she will prove the point that she was instrumental in changing the face of Delhi through a series of her Government lead initiatives for the development work.
Some of the surprises that Delhi Assembly Elections due next month can throw can be summarized below:
1. Congress may fall short of the majority but can still manage to form a Government as AAP will not support BJP and is most likely to abstain from voting on the floor allowing a Party with only 28-29 seats to form the next Government in the state of Delhi.
2. BJP is backing on Narendra Modi’s elevation as the PM candidate to influence Delhi Voters. Namo rally at Rohini which managed to attract a large crowd is indicative of his popularity among Delhi voters.
3. Anti – Congress vote is getting hugely divided between AAP and BJP. Congress will definitely benefit from it. Lower class vote bank of Congress coupled with Muslim vote bank can do a magic for Sheila in December, 2013.
4. 16 constituencies of Delhi where the migrant population is high will be crucial and decisive for all parties.
So will a Class factor still be crucial? We all must wait and watch for the outcome of Delhi Assembly Elections in December, 2013.
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