Steven strauss: ten reasons we should be cautious about militaryintervention in syria

However, here are 10 reasons to proceed cautiously, be patient inseeking a diplomatic solution, and strive (as we successfully didin the first Gulf War) to ensure we have the largest possiblecoalition if we do intervene. Reason 1: Assad is murderous, but if this escalates to a war --casualties could be far worse. Over the past year, the Syrian regime murdered approximately 9,000 to 11,000 people . The death of one person is a tragedy, and the Assad regime hasmurdered many times over. However, people are being murdered by Assad's regime in Syria atthe rate of about 40-50 deaths per 100,000 Syrians, per year.

Thisis approximately the murder rate in New Orleans or Detroit . A military intervention, of any type, could end up triggering farmore Syrian civilian deaths. Reason 2: Syria has one of the world's largest chemical weapons programs (an estimated fifty storage and production facilities),and some of these facilities are in heavily populated areas. The U.S.

Military has estimated that it could take 75,000 U.S. ground troops to secure all of Syria's chemical weapons facilities. During thetime it would take to secure these facilities, Assad could usethese chemical weapons: against Israel (to trigger a regional war),against the mainland U.S., against Turkey, against his own civilianpopulation or that of other countries. In the confusion of regimechange (even in the best scenario, there will be some breakdown incontrols), chemical weapons could fall into the hands of Hezbollah,Hamas, al Qaeda or other terrorist groups.

Or, an American airattack might strike a secret chemical weapons storage area,accidentally killing large numbers of people. Reason 3: United States intervention in Syria will be viewed asoccupation -- not liberation, vastly complicating resolution of post-Assad issues. Obama'scritics believe the Middle East wants U.S. intervention in Syria.The United States isn't viewed favorably in the Arab world. Opinion polls in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan show a consistentlyunfavorable view of our intervention in Iraq.

If the United Statesintervenes in Syria, Assad will position himself as a Syriannationalist fighting American-Zionist occupation (it worked forSaddam and his supporters). Reason 4: Syria is large, with a population at least three timesthe size of Libya. Libya is a small country (population 6.7 million); Syria'spopulation is about 23 million , closer in size to Iraq. Reason 5: Syria is a cauldron of sectarian communities.

Libya is 97 percent Sunni, but Syria's population (like Iraq's) is heterogeneous : Sunni Muslim 74 percent, other Muslim (including Alawite, Druze)16 percent, and Christian (various denominations) 10 percent.Intervention (such as, arming Syrian rebels) has a significantprobability of igniting a sectarian conflict (as we experienced inIraq), with differing religious groups engaging in ethnic cleansingto create 'pure' neighborhoods (which happened in Baghdad). Theresulting civilian death toll could vastly exceed the currentcarnage. Reason 6: The Syrian military is well-armed and loyal to Assad. Unlike Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya -- the Syrian military istrained and armed with modern weapons.

Further, Assad has beenimproving its capabilities (this spring, Syria received a major new anti-aircraft system ). The ruling Assad family is Alawite, and the military appearsloyal to the regime (career military, 70% Alawite ). A significant portion of Syria's population would remain loyalto Assad for fear of living under a Sunni-dominated government. Reason 7: Unlike Libya, the Assad regime is receiving outsidesupport.

Assad already receives support from Iran and Russia . American intervention in Syria could trigger increased Iranianand Russian aid to Assad. The Iranian government would welcometrapping the United States in a proxy war in Syria, furtherdraining our resources and distracting America from Iran's nuclearambitions. Intervention in Syria could result in a prolonged war.

Reason 8: Assad's successors could be worse for Syria and theUnited States. Our intervention in Iraq left the Iraqis and the United States inworse shape. The new Iraqi government is not particularly friendlyto the United States, is friendly with Iran, and 65percent of Iraqis believe conditions were better (or the same) underSaddam. As the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff emphasized, we know almost nothing about the Syrian rebels. Reason 9: A civil war could spill over into the countries thatborder Syria: Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey.

Potentially, this could turn into a major regional war involvingIran. Reason 10: Charity begins at home. America has a massive budget deficit; domestic infrastructurethat's falling apart; murder rates making some of our inner cities as dangerous as Syria ; our military served honorably and bravely in Afghanistan andIraq, but deserves some rest; and many other challenges. This isn'tthe time for a new Middle Eastern adventure, unless absolutelynecessary.

For the sakes of the American and Syrian people, militaryintervention should be our last resort and should be carefullyplanned, based on realistic assumptions. Follow Steven Strauss on twitter at: @Steven_Strauss or on Facebookat: https:///Steven.Strauss.Updates About the Author: Steven Strauss was founding Managing Director of the Center for EconomicTransformation at the New York City Economic DevelopmentCorporation (NYCEDC). He is an Advanced Leadership Fellow atHarvard University for 2012. He has a Ph.D. in Management from YaleUniversity, over 20 years' private sector work experience, and hasworked in the Middle East in various capacities.

Note: Unless otherwise specified population, demographic, andeconomic data are from the CIA World Factbook . A version of this post originally appeared at "BusinessInsider" Follow Steven Strauss on Twitter: /steven_strauss.

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