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First half of the first ultra-Germany and China exports are expected in the world - Refractory Indu by na b
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First half of the first ultra-Germany and China exports are expected in the world - Refractory Indu by NA B
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| Article Posted: 01/10/2011 |
| Article Views: 100 |
| Articles Written: 2638 - MORE ARTICLES FROM THIS AUTHOR |
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First half of the first ultra-Germany and China exports are expected in the world - Refractory Indu |
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Business,Business News,Business Opportunities
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24, said the first half of this year, China and Germany of dollars in export value by almost equal, slightly ahead of China. This is the beginning of this year China's GDP exceeded that of Germany after the index rose more than another in Germany.
Calculated according to WTO, in the first half of Chinese exports worth 521.7 billion U.S. dollars of goods in Germany compared to 521.6 billion U.S. dollars. In fact, the two export or matched. According to Chinese customs statistics caliber shows in the first half China's exports totaled 521.5 billion U.S. dollars, slightly less than the WTO statistics.
Thus, although beyond the statistical sense, but the symbolism is very obvious, the financial crisis, the Chinese economy to maintain stability in the global recession, and at a bright spot.
WTO chief economist PatrickLow to comment that "looks very tight race to bite." In his view, depends not only on the results of the second half of exports, the exchange rate may be even greater chance to decide who will be the final year exports the first volume.
Low said, according to the present situation, it is difficult to judge this year or next year, which country would win.
Since 2003, Germany has been the world's largest merchandise exporter. Some analysts had expected, the Chinese exports may surpass Germany in 2009.
Rebound while also shrinking After the financial crisis last year, the overall contraction of world trade, Chinese exports in the first half the average monthly decline in more than 20% year on year, and for 9 consecutive months of decline. Macro-forecast public opinion may not have thought of China's exports could become the world's first.
That due to German exports suffered a similar decline in the same range. Along with its strong German export orders, the economy has been in the European Union, "dominate" its foreign trade accounted for 47% of GDP. Compared to other European countries, Germany's economic dependence on exports is very clear, is a typical export-oriented economic growth.
Composition of German exports, the export mainly concentrated in the automotive, machinery and chemical industries, share and growth rate far greater than the services of consumer goods, this increased volatility of the German economy. When the main trading partners of economic problems, the German economy immediately fluctuate.
Into the second quarter, however, since the same time exports between China and Germany signs of recovery.
Germany is an economic rebound in the euro area one of the fastest. In the August 14 published data show that Germany and France lead in turn to the economic growth rate in the second quarter GDP growth of 0.3% in quarter, exceeding expectations. It is led by France and Germany, there are data that the euro zone economy may be out of recession in the third quarter. Because of this, economists immediately raised euro zone GDP growth expected this year and next.
According to the German Federal Statistics Office released data, in June, following the German industrial orders increased by 4.4% last month after an increase of 4.5% again. Of these, only orders from China increased by 0.2%, while the strong orders from abroad increased by 8.3%.
In July, according to data from the second half of foreign trade of China has also been warmer, coastal export orders increased business, in July also return 100 billion surplus in checkpoints. Benefit from the timely adjustment of export tax rebates, processing trade in China's light industrial products to keep the global market share. Ministry of Commerce spokesman Yao Jian recently positive expectations for the second half of exports that may be recovered in the fourth quarter year.
Into the determinants of exchange rate or
Exports if China and Germany are showing signs of recovery, exchange rate movements may be the end of the final decision who to obtain export champion.
Some analysts believe that the recent euro strength, which have more tests for German exports.
As for China, due to the financial crisis last year, the dollar settled currency exchange rate fluctuations, foreign exchange and increased risk of China's foreign trade enterprises, export credits and also affect corporate profits. Deputy Director, Finance Division, Ministry of Commerce Xu plus love the day before yesterday in the Chinese government network users to accept questions had revealed that the first half of the average export profitability of Chinese enterprises is only 1.5%.
Xu plus love that, according to the Ministry of Commerce of nearly 2,000 key enterprises survey, the first half of this year, business was only 1.5% of the average export profitability, down 6.2%. This gives the overall stable export enterprises make the test.
Policy Research Department of Commerce, an official told CBN that the exchange rate shock is the biggest impact on Chinese exports. Reflected from the local and business situation, shrinking foreign demand is the main reason the dollar and other major international trade settlement currency fluctuations, but also an important factor can not be ignored. China's export industry can not be the right choice if the settlement currency, a huge exchange losses, will affect the export interests.
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